Beat me to it, Bill. AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch Oct 22 01:18 PM US/Eastern By LIZ SIDOTI Associated Press Writer 1 Comments Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., greats support... Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. speaks to the... WASHINGTON (AP) - An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000. Two weeks before the election, McCain and Barack Obama are essentially running even among likely voters. The poll put Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent among those voters who are considered likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race has narrowed as Republicans drift home to their party. McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy also seemed to strike a chord. The race is still volatile. Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had a seven-point lead over McCain. Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Front page above the fold story in the WSJ today says Obama opens a double digit lead. The story says, "Overall, the poll found 52% of voters favor Sen. Obama versus 42% for Sen. McCain. That ten point lead is up from a six-point Obama edge two weeks ago. The survey of registered voters, conducted from Friday to Monday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points." November 4 is the ultimate poll. I'm projecting Obama as the winner.
Polls are crap. Especially weekend polls. Especially weekend polls of registered voters. Notice that polls never tell you how many people refused to answer - they don't want you to know. They also never tell you how many people lie to their polls - they don't know. So if they have to make 2,000 phone calls to get 1,000 respondents and an unknown percentage lie, what good is the poll? Virtually every presidential election since polling began has overestimated Democrat support and underestimated Republican support.
Not true Gordon. in 2000,All the polls gave Bush the winner vs AL Gore, it tightened a little bit after his DUI came out. He did worse than the polls predicted in 2004, all the polls gave it to Bush except for the retarded Zogby who also gave California to Obama during the primaries and lost all credibility. Even Bill O'Reilly wouldn't use it, I heard on on the Radio factor
RCP who does a poll of polls shows Obama at +6.8; while INTRADE has Obama at 87% and remember INTRADE had the best record in the 2004 election and 2006 senate elections, calling all states correctly in the Pres. race and calling all Senate races correctly. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ http://www.intrade.com/ Seneca
I didn't say the polls always predict a Democrat win - I said they overestimate Democrat support and underestimate Republican support. Actually the Democrat mantra after the election was that the election must have been rigged because Bush received more votes in swing states than the polls suggested he would.
I agree. The media always underestimate the GOP support. so much so, it's embarrassing. But it only seem to happen in Prez races, they got the last 2006 congress contest pretty much right.