Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1a2b3cppp, Jun 21, 2012.
Predictors, do your thing!
I wanted to make this a public poll but I didn't see that as an option.
Today's downday was incredibly significant. In my opinion it starts a new downleg of this bear market. We wont see the highs of today until the bear market is over.
I was expecting this type of up day to start a bull market, but instead we got tepid up days sucking the bulls in and sucking them in, and then WHAM!
I'm short the indices. It's tough to step in their at these levels and short, but the first bounce back of 20 points or so on the NASDAQ and i will enter in more positions.
To the 2007 poster above - don't get emotions involved with trading.
Take a look at the 60 minute chart-perfect trend line. Not very significant (trend line ta), but on larger time periods, it is a useful bit.
If you want to short here, go ahead. I think the poll speaks for itself.
We should drop further! I am short! But after that we enter grind up to S&P 1500!
Crude, Aud, Spoos, everything going under. This was not a generic trend day, but start of a downmove, that will last at least 5 days and possibly a month. ES will definitely break 1300 within next 3 days, if it is a big red flag. If we don't break 1300 within 5 trading days, we are going to rally big time.
A little bounce up today from yesterday's big down day.
I wonder if this is a) the start of a rise back up, b) just a pullback in the downtrend, or c) the beginning of chop.
I like the poll part where it says ''I don't know'' Can not agree with the ''random'' part of the poll sentence.LOL
Probably the longest term trend is still up;
even though SPY did not reach/ecxceed long term high of $150 area.
I like a good downtrend & a good up-trend.SPY is a nice investment up from its 2008 lows, but simply too many weekly down gaps from mid APR,2012, to name it a good uptrend now, None of this is random or a prediction.
B or C is more plausible probably a combination of the two. Market want QE3 but got Twist reloaded somewhat of a let down. Europe will continue to generate headlines. For now any promises by the central bankers/politician could give the market hope. However, they don't last long as the market started to look at those promises with more inquisitive eyes and give a thumb down on most of them. US is in a slump and potential tax hike and spending cut would send it lower near the end of the year. But I expect those two items to be suspended temporarily for the good of the economy/market so market could rally a little bit one that decision is made. Overall, just more can kicking waiting for a miracle or divine intervention (yeah right) but the can is getting heavier to kick everyday. Good luck with trying to kick a rock the near future.
Economy is slowing down and will take everything with it. QE wouldn't do much good in this environment as a potential crash is not that eminent but just more sideways trading with a bearish bias. QE will only come it as a defensive strategy, not to send the market to the moon but to prevent it from crashing down to earth.
Downtrend since 1400. 1360 is resistance on the way back up. This isn't the beginning of a downer, it's the continuation of the one from 1400.
It'll end when Europe finally either cracks up (most likely) or solves (doesn't look likely, but you never know) its problem.
As August is coming, I expect the next week or two to be full of action, because not going to the beach is not an option for the Brussels sprites. Still, the most likely bet is that the S&P is lower 20 days from now than where it is now.
Just be honest, nobody knows anything about the market's direction. Charts tell what has happened, not what will happen. Too many variables. That's why it's a market. We'll know when the price volume action happens on Monday.
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