Big down day on Monday?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by naufal, Jun 30, 2008.

  1. naufal


    1. Crude is making new highs around 6:50 AM EST, as I type.
    2. VIX and VXN are relatively low, indicating a lot of complacency.
    3. Overall trend is obviously down.
    4. No reason to be bullish on Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment readings today.

    I think it's possible that oil gaps up today and surges the whole day, similar to June 6, and that this causes massive distribution and panic selling throuhgout the market, spiking the VIX and VXN. This would set up the oversold bounce on Tuesday/Wednesday that everyone is looking for very nicely, as the VIX would finally allow a big bounce back.

    Just a possibility, but I am long USO, SDS, and QID calls, as well as GOOG puts. Today could be a good day.
  2. Anything can happen but I don't think you will see the next leg down until Thursday when the job numbers come out.

  3. I am thinking we bounce today, or at the very least chop.
  4. empee


    interesting july 4 week which normally means bullish because light volume days/weeks are usually up, but lately its been the opposite.