Big day for GROW tommorrow.

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by michaelscott, Apr 19, 2007.

  1. I often write about GROW because its a great stock to trade and very predictable.

    The middle Bollinger Band is right at 29.11 and the closing price today is at 29.03.

    The height of the cup/handle on the chart is 17.56. Therefore, in theory, there can be 3 inflection points.

    1/3 retracement 34.95-(17.56/3)=29.1 (this is the 20 day moving average and mid Bollinger Band)

    1/2 retracement 34.95-(17.56/2)=26.17

    2/3 retracement 34.95-(17.56*(2/3))=23.24 (bottom Bollinger Band is right at 23.8 and 50 day moving average is right at 23.7)

    Any of the above price points can be natural inflection points on the chart. When the price does inflect, then you three possible target prices:

    1/3 retracement level 29.1+17.56= 46.66

    1/2 retracement level 26.17+17.56= 43.73

    2/3 retracement level 23.24+17.56= 40.8


    The news in China is that the GDP is too hot and that Chinese officials will be taking measures late Friday. A correction has begun today. However, in the past, the market has seemingly priced in the worst possible scenario and we imagine hardline Chinese officials taking draconian measures. In reality, the Chinese dont want to ruin the economy or the stock market. They just want to slow it down a little bit in order to restore sanity. The measures taken will most likely be tepid and then we will most likely buy on the news of the Chinese decision.

    Therefore, the inflection point could be tommorrow as the price has reached the 1/3 retracement level.

    However, a retracement to the 1/2 level or 2/3 level is a lot healthier as it reaches deep down to the bottom Bollinger, fills the gaps in price on the chart and encourages shorts to cover.

    In the past, the price has usually corrected to the 2/3 level bouncing off of the bottom Bollinger Band.

    Tommorrow will be the test for GROW. In any event, I feel the future price target is somewhere over 40 as I have maintained throughout my writings of GROW.
    (cut and paste this link as I think elitetrader wont translate it correctly)
  2. michaelscott,

    Here are few of my charts on GROW.

    You're right GROW is at a very critical point, the daily technical indicators don't look too good, but the overall trend is still up. If the stock wants to go up, this is where it should bounce for the next leg up.

    (1) On the daily and weekly chart, it is at the bottom of the trend channel, breaks the channel is very dangerous.

    On the weekly chart, hold 28.68 is critical, this will be the battle line between shorts and longs. GROW had a volume change since last week (see the yellow candlestick), last time the stock has a volume change it was in Dec:


    (2) On the daily chart, it is also at very bottom of the trend channel. $30.68 is the resistence:


    (3) .382 fib retracement is at $28.29, 0.50 fib retracement is at $26.24, and 0.618 fib retracement is at $24.19


    (4) It is right at the 30 period WMA, the long-term overall trend is still up, resistence is at $31.50, the short-term technical indicators point down and have not turned, need to check the hourly chart to see where it is trend wise:


    (5) On BB or Keltner Channel. You're right, the price is at the middle of the channel, but it is below the middle of the Keltner channel, the bottom of the channel is at 26s..


    (6) On the hourly chart, it is trading in the downtrend channel after breaking the previous uptrend channel around $31, the fibonacci retracement (pink area) is at 28.12-28.31 area if it goes to red tomorrow.

  3. hels02


    Whoa... nice charts :)
  4. not enuf indicators for me. There was a llittle space in the upper left hand corner that was unused.
  5. Priceless! ;)
  6. LOL.. Dude, how the hell do you understand those charts?!... It looks like someone on crack was trying to draw a rainbow and failed. :p
  7. Lol, too complicated for me.
  8. Wait... I thought it was the mescaline. You SEE it TOO?!
  9. God damn GROW snuck up out of now where yesterday and up in pre-market this morning.

    Looks like a short again if it goes up another buck and give back some of those gains.

    Or buy into momentum. Hmmmmmmm
  10. I think its going to go higher to 32 dollars.
    #10     Jun 20, 2007