yes, great, always happy to check your call out in real time. At present I do not trade individual stocks, only sectors & ccy. That is how my signals work. For the record : trendline that will signal anticipated move up has started is now at around 85.00. I will then add to my activity ST trades. Need to see weekly close above.
Took one Dax trade last night for $200, but then missed the big short, however I was short the ES via my CFD platform which paid out another $355 AUD. AUD @1.30pm or 1hr 45 . AUDJPY daily close wasn't the best and sort of a month close doji.
AUDJPY closing week 7844, did not last long above 8000. Surprise was (because of above) that gold broke up and GDX had significant session up more than 11 pct, closing near many months high. At other times audjpy diverged considerably from AU stock market & raw material prices, so maybe that s one of these. certainly audjpy feels heavy. However, behaviour remains so far consistent with my expectation. no doubt, property stimulation distorting behaviour.
having another look. It is definitely that gold price goes opposite to banks price. Friday was jap candles sell signal for banks. Yet not a single negative news for banks. And it was also breakout in gold and gold stocks from congestion. And this theme started exactly on 1/1/16. CBA.ax below 70 will raise alarms. 70 well defended, so far. Preparing for action. Considering short XLF
is it possible inverse relationship gold/bans because such simple reason as banks short gold ? if this is so, shorts must be huge. remember whispers about it, many moons ago. All these longs have been burnt by now. It just may be true.
I think its all relevant. USD, GOLD , and YEN. Understanding the macro correlation is important, but also just trading what you see rather than over analyzing everything.
They say a flat yield curve and low rates in general is bad for banks. Growth and inflation expectations were crushed way out there on the curve with that job report. German 10 year Bund is at +6 friggin(down from 100 bp. last year)basis points! Look at the multi year high in the Note/Bund yoeld spread. Short financials does seem a good call.
as banks are all behaving like one, and aus banks are most on edge from them all, looking at them gives hints of (global) stimulus or lack of it, that can crush short position. current prime minister is their man and sure put some tiny print in legislation to protect them when shtf. He seem to completed his mission. Now as labour gaining points, man behind curtain preparing labour win, and subsequent recession that will be blamed on labour. Once unwind completed, in couple years, liberals will come as saviours on white horse and start new bubble cycle with some very clever setup that will compete in sophistication with current property one. But AUDJPY does not want to sink, as it should if banking system allowed to collapse. I do have decent gold position in place - if above turns in bank crisis appreciation will be many times current prices in gdx. Will look to short banks using short term trade only - couple weeks duration or so.