Bidu about to tank down below $80

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Rearden Metal, Jul 26, 2006.

  1. you could:

    short the stock (main play)
    buy calls (upside hedge)
     
    #91     Aug 17, 2006
  2. tradethetrade

    tradethetrade Vendor

    All this info is available to anyone on yahoo finance. You need to know your s*** well to trade like this. Beginners like me should STAY OUT!!!

     
    #92     Aug 17, 2006
  3. FWIW, assuming one to one ratio you've synthetically bought PUTs at the CALL strike price with more transaction costs than the natural.
     
    #93     Aug 17, 2006
  4. BCE

    BCE

    RM,
    Congratulations on an enormously successful trade or should I say trades on DAKT. :)
    I was thinking about this last night and remembering this post of yours above and also remembering Jack Schwager's interview of Mark Cook in Stock Market Wizards http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1116566&highlight=Mark+Cook#post1116566
    in which Mark discusses selling naked calls and one trade where he is absolutely hammered. There are 3 posts at the link so keep reading and the last one is just below someone elses. What I'm wondering about is your thoughts on doing this. What if DAKT had good news and it jumped up? I mean this could happen right? Unless you had insider info how can you be positive of how the earnings would go or that there wouldn't be some other news like in Mark Cook's story? It seems like you took an enormous risk which in this case resulted in a huge payout. But what if it had gone the other way? It's all very interesting and it's been fun reading your comments and everyone elses take on the trades. Glad some of you also made some good money on this too. :)
     
    #94     Aug 17, 2006
  5. big whoop, one good day and hes back to where he started, besides... i dont think he's leveragin' his buttz on this kinda trades.
     
    #95     Aug 17, 2006
  6. pattersb

    pattersb Guest

    #96     Aug 17, 2006
  7. the best way to enter earning's directional trade is by selling the slightly ITM opposite leg. especially if one expecting moderate move. In case of DAKT , that would of be SEP 30 call. If RM would of be wrong and stock spike after report , the crash in IV would of erase first 5-8% of the loss ( compare to cent per cent loss when shorting).
    Then ,even a 60-40 winning ratio (on the direction) becomes a winning strategy.
     
    #97     Aug 17, 2006
  8. true, i saw some biotech crap puts not movin' more than a couple of ticks after stock plunged 20% due to report...and of course calls premium gone to hell.
     
    #98     Aug 17, 2006
  9. 1) Cook over-leveraged himself. I didn't.
    2) My DAKT stock position was much bigger than my relatively tiny DAKT options positions.
    3) Selling 100 calls naked short is no more risky than selling 10,000 shares short in the underlying stock.
    4) I keep under 20% of my net worth in my trading account. People ask me what my risk management is- THAT is my risk management.
    5) "big whoop, one good day and hes back to where he started, besides... i dont think he's leveragin' his buttz on this kinda trades."
     
    #99     Aug 17, 2006
  10. BCE

    BCE

    Thanks for sharing that RM. I wasn't questioning your abilities or strategy either for that matter, although it may have seemed that way. I was mostly wondering about the risks you were willing to take on. I'm sure your trading account is much larger than mine and you can thus leverage much larger positiions and afford to take much larger losses when it goes against you. Of course this also translates into much larger profits when you are right. Again, great trade and thanks for sharing your risk parameters and options strategy. Good trading today. :) Thanks again.
     
    #100     Aug 18, 2006