This ABC/Washington Post poll is awful for Biden. This organization consistently had him with a 10-12 point lead in 2020 when Biden only won by 4.5 points. Maybe they overcorrected and don't know how to poll or maybe it is that bad despite Trump looking more and more like a rapist.
It certainly is.Ive voted for the democrat nominee for president every election since I could vote,in 2024 I wont be.If Biden and the democrat party could make someone like me change my mind and be ok with a Trump or DeSantis win I know millions more democrats are changing their minds too.
Anlot will depend on who the Republican nominee is. Trump will have his own problems with support and can energize the democrats.
Honestly, these polls are all over the place. A Rasmussen poll today (a polling company that has leaned with a slight Republican bias in the past) has Biden at a 51-49% approval rating. However, it is important to note that Biden won the popular vote by a 4.5% margin last time and only won the Electoral College by .63% (the margin in WI) so he really needs 4%. In the end Biden starts with a 226-219 advantage and it will come down to 7 states: NC, GA, PA, MI, WI, NV, and AZ. While FL, OH, and IA have trended away some think Democrats can flip TX, but I doubt it. Conversely, I don't see MN, NH, or ME getting much closer for Trump. MN was surprisingly close in 2016, but went back to +7% for Biden in 2020.
That is the only true part of your statement.....the rest is small sample sized insignificant statistics which are used to incorrectly as facts.
I think aggregate is best.From 538 at this point in their presidencies Bidens net approval is -10 Trump was -16 Obama was +6 Bush 2 was +38 Clinton was +13 While Biden has time to turn it around (I doubt he does as he has pissed off so many groups that a democrat needs to win) no president has won re election with a disapproval rating higher than approval rating.Abortion is his only hope but I think the issue is waning as most people know even if Biden wins Dems wont do shit to make abortion legal nationwide.
A lot of it is my opinion analyzing the data. The data could change, but 2016 and 2020 weren't too far off with the exception of a few states trending one way or another. My feeling and yes it is my feeling, is that any states outside that group of 7 I've mentioned are unlikely to flip and if they do it's unlikely to be a competitive election. If another state flips, I expect all 7 of these states go to that candidate as well. This is based on the margins in the previous election and how they've been trending. The margin of victory for the Presidency was extremely close: .63% in WI, .31% in AZ, and .24% in GA was the difference between a Trump and Biden presidency as it would have given us a 269-269 tie.
Trump has a terrible approval rating and at the end of the day, I think the people who disapprove of both lean Biden. The data shows that in 2020 more people voted against Trump than for Biden. There's no cult of personality for Biden like there is Trump. If Trump loses this rape case it could be a significant blow to him. I mean, convicted rapist is a pretty damning attack even if it's from a civil trial. And Democrats now have the best ad they've ever had ready courtesy of Trump's stupid mouth: "unforunately or fortunately". Combine that with all the stories of women unable to get an abortion for medical reasons. There's so many stories of this now and the list will only grow.