Bidenomics, baby!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Frederick Foresight, Jan 22, 2024.

  1. So you actually don't know any of these folks 'cept what you seen on Fox, but that didn't stop you from deciding they're nothing like the "good" migrants your family were back in the day? That's a pretty shitty way to judge folks by any measure.

    If "This isn't the way to do it" is all you got then just go with that, not some bullshit about the "migrants these days" and how much better your family was than them.
     
    #81     Jan 25, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  2. piezoe

    piezoe

    The recession talk in 2020-23 was speculative based on the FOMC's decision to Raise Rates to combat inflation. The underlying assumption is that the Philips curve of inflation to unemployment is reversible a certain region of the curve. [https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/january/what-is-phillips-curve-why-flattened] As far as I can tell, the FOMC's decision to steeply increase the funds rate was based on this reasoning. Raising the cost of money may slow the economy and thus job growth, eventually to the point of pushing the economy into recession. This thinking is channeling Paul Volcker's 1980s Fed, as is Lawrence Summers' recent prediction that a recession would be needed to rein in inflation. Note that Volcker's management of inflation has been recently criticized by Warren Mosler (google "Mosler on Paul Volcker").

    Two factors tended to invalidate Summer's reasoning, and apparently the FOMC's as well:
    1) Inflation wasn't caused by strain on the labor supply. Rather it was caused by covid-necessitated, transfer payments bringing millions of minimum wage earners rapidly up to 15$/hr in conjunction with a severe, goods and services supply shock. (Had inflation been caused by a shortage of labor, then decreasing demand for labor, by pushing the economy into recession via rate increases, would indeed, ceteris paribus, be expected to bring down inflation.)

    2) The Biden Administration pushed through bipartisan infrastructure bills totaling about 3 Trillion over ten years. This meant that any effort to tackle inflation by trying to induce a recession would be swimming upstream against a flood of new money being spent into the economy. Furthermore, the supply shock experienced as the nation exited from the Covid threat largely abated as people went back to work. Current unemployment numbers now approach record lows. (The lowest unemployment since the 19th Century was during WWII, keeping in mind that some who were counted as unemployed then would not be counted today.)

    Putting these factors together explains why the U.S. has apparently escaped the need for a Fed-initiated recession to force down inflation. The recession bullet has been dodged for now, and a "soft-landing" has apparently been achieved. Of course there will eventually be a credit cycle caused recession. And too, it hasn't been lost on long-time observers of the U.S. economy how less likely it is that a recession will take hold during the last year of the 4-year election cycle.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2024
    #82     Jan 25, 2024
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    It's important for all of us to realize that Mayorkas, arguably the most competent Homeland Secretary we have had, has put forth practical proposals to bring the border situation under control, but there is no possibility of there being enough Republican votes to pass the necessary legislation.

    Donald Trump has inveighed against immigrants calling them "rapists and murderers" and has even paraphrased Hitler by telling his followers, "They let — I think the real number is 15, 16 million people into our country. When they do that, we got a lot of work to do. They’re poisoning the blood of our country.”

    Republicans are making border chaos and their desire to keep immigrants out of "our country" a main talking point this election cycle. They block, and will continue to block at least until after the election, the administration's legislation aimed at solving the problem at our borders.* What can be done with executive orders alone is not sufficient. The Republicans obviously realize this!
    _____________________
    * Dreamers remain a pawn in the struggle to fix America's immigration laws. The statement below summarizes the Dreamers current situation: "Congress has been debating variations of the Dream Act for nearly 20 years, yet, despite broad bipartisan support, Congress has failed to pass a bill and Dreamers have remained stuck in limbo. Now, the threat of DACA ending is very real, and imminent, and the consequences of delaying this issue into the next presidential administration could result in further inaction, with hundreds of DACA recipients losing work authorization and facing the threat of deportation." [see https://www.fwd.us/news/dream-act-of-2023-priority-bill-spotlight/]
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2024
    #83     Jan 25, 2024
  4. piezoe

    piezoe

    Reality check: Neither party has an open border policy. To claim so is political hyperbole intended to mislead. The Biden Administration desperately wants to get control of the border situation and has proposed practical legislation to do so. Republicans have made an untenable border situation a key campaign issue. Upon instructions from their leader, they are blocking passage of needed legislation to fix the problem. (Go to 13.07 in the following video.)
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2024
    #84     Jan 27, 2024
    Frederick Foresight likes this.
  5. piezoe

    piezoe

    And what is the Republican response to sensible proposals by Mayorkas. They want to impeach him!!! If we want to fix the border problem, we must first fix the Republican party.
     
    #85     Jan 27, 2024
    Frederick Foresight likes this.
  6. DTB2

    DTB2

    How can Mayaorkas propose sensible solutions when he never has an actual answer to questions when testifying?

    He knows none of the numbers or facts when asked but instead wants to go on fillibustering.
     
    #86     Jan 28, 2024
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Gotcha political grandstanding, which both parties do, doesn't led to a solution.

    Only to the same folks getting re-elected time and again.
     
    #87     Jan 28, 2024
  8. DTB2

    DTB2

    #88     Jan 28, 2024
  9. piezoe

    piezoe

    This is inaccurate. Please read the article you gave a link to for more details. Of course the proposals being negotiated include speeding up processing, all sides believe that this is necessary. It is incorrect, however, to suggest that either side in the negotiations wants no restrictions on immigration, just as zero immigration is also not a reasonable option. What's being proposed is a continuation of regulated immigration according to specific criteria and for processing of those who present at our borders to be greatly sped up. Note how deportations were reduced under the Trump administration compared to those under the Obama administration. The data below stops with the 2019 report. I invite you read the 2021 report here: https://www.ice.gov/doclib
    eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2021.pdf

    The data makes it clear that the United States does not have an open border policy. If we want to accelerate progress on immigration reform and enforcement, we ashould all want to elect a well educated Congress that is capable of negotiating and compromising. It is also necessary to progress that the Senate be pushed to change its rules to eliminate the so called "Cloak Room Veto." The latter has, from time to time, immobilized the Senate, preventing it from fulfilling its Constitutionally prescribed duties. The Founding Fathers could not have imagined that the Senate would makes rules that had the effect of making the Senate non-functional. These are the kinds of rules that serve only destructive forces that have infiltrated government.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2024
    #89     Jan 28, 2024