I'm not sure if you know how these things work. Asset bubbles rarely deflate slowly in an age of trillions of printed dollars, years of ZIRP, terrible policies (especially in the last year), stagflation, a potential food crisis, etc. Were you trading and following the economy in 2007? That should give you a clue, and it's worse now. Rapidly rising interest rates could also pop a hot real estate market that may be almost as overvalued and overlevered as it was then, too. We have a generation who's never paid 5-6% for a mortgage.
I'll admit, I don't *know* how it works. But luckily, for me to profit, I don't need to. The housing market bubble and crash was caused mostly by subprime lending to people who couldn't really afford the house they were getting.
That might have been reason for the last crash. The next crash (in any market not just housing) is nearly always for a different reason.
That's the official line and definitely part of it. But the immediate cause isn't what's so important. It's the main ingredients (artificially-low interest rates, asset bubbles caused by them, huge amounts of money printed and spent that we don't really have--much more than in 2007, etc.). Add inflation to the mix--which wasn't there in '07 either--and we're in quite the predicament. It's very hard to engineer a soft landing (as the Fed used to dream about) in these circumstances. Asset bubbles very rarely unwind in a slow, orderly way.
Historically low, yes but absolutely low? I'm not sure: Besides, if you were trading this chart, are you going to bet on an immediate reversal now or wait for some consolidation first?
I'm not giving trading advice. However, if you look at interest rates since we officially got off the gold standard (1973), both 2007-8 and afterwards were at very low rates historically. This chart ends in 2015, but rates went right back to zero during the next crisis (COVID) and remained there until last week. They haven't made a meaningful move upward since the early 2000s.
Your chart cuts off at 2015. Still, if you were trading this as a price series, I would expect something like this. And given the size of the shit show that hits on the second bump, they are more likely to replace the USD than follow through with interest rate hikes.
Most everything Biden has done so far hints of socialism...this one here stinks of socialism...They will "most certainly" morph this into higher taxes on the middle class. And yes..it justifies larger govt spending in his mind