I understand projection on the part of a narcissist like Trump. What I don't understand is why otherwise smart, well meaning people like you, @KCalhou, @Opcodes, and @Clubber Lang would engage in it for the guy? I know you've listed to Trump talk, and I know that if I could go back to the you of 5 years ago and present you a transcript of almost any speech of his without attribution you would have unambiguously told me this was a guy who "couldn't even string together a coherent sentence." Certainly you heard Trump's response when asked on Fox news what his top priority items were for his second term just last week? If not, I'll refresh your memory: "Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an — a very important meaning. I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.” Again, you're smart people. That's in no way a coherent statement. And that's one of literally thousands of similarly discursive, incoherent quotes from Trump. I'm happy to provide you as many as you need to convince you of that fact, let me know if you'd like me to continue? I get that you don't like Biden's liberal policies. I get that you want conservative judges nominated. Those may be reasons to hold your nose and vote for Trump for you. But please, don't sacrifice your self respect and personal honor by going so far as to emulate him and attack others for the things that he is most guilty of. You're better than that!
Remember how much lower our debt and deficit were when Obama left office versus Jan 1st of this year, even before COVID? You used to be the person who cared about the deficit and debt. You used to be the person who claimed that we needed to be fiscally responsible, that it was the business friendly thing to do. You spent 8 years screaming about Obama blowing up the debt. What happened to you? Have you no shame?
And you were dropped on your head. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/05/us-tax-revenue-dropped-sharply-due-to-trump-tax-cuts-report.html
I'm seeing about a 3 spread on Biden vs any Democrat and Trump vs any Republican. Remember how the math works on percentages of percentages; if the overall odds are roughly 60%/40% then a 4 percentage point spread for Biden is less of a total percentage (4/60=.067) than a 4 percentage point spread for Trump (4/40=.1). It's actually interesting, several studies have shown that the human brain has a hard time intuitively grasping the odds of subset items. Obviously the chance of Biden or Trump winning is completely encompassed in the chance of a Democrat or Republican (respectively) winning. So there should definitely be a split in the odds and the current 3 percent split seems roughly reasonable. I'd be interested to see what its been historically.
Yes, it appears that it has narrowed recently, however there are other markets which indicate Biden being replaced with even greater probability.
22 thousand posts. How many are bearish, and how many are bullish? I like to see something like -- "I would buy Trump and sell Biden". If it is sell Trump and sell Biden, then why even discuss Trump or Biden?
If Biden is the nominee in November I don't think he will make it through a full term. I'd take the under.
I disagree. I believe Trump's cognitive functions are strong despite being more stressed than usual. My opinion does not care about Trump or Biden's political beliefs but rather my experience observing congnitive decline. I see no congitive decline at all in Trump but I do see cognitive decline in Biden. I am basing my observations on how they have both presented in the past and how they present in recent weeks. Stress is also known to accelerate cognitive decline so this is what we may be seeing.