Biden to end most tax cuts if he wins. This will be intriguing.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Jun 29, 2020 at 9:06 PM.

  1. S2007S


    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020 at 9:46 PM
    KCalhoun likes this.
  2. Sig


    As the man says "But even before the coronavirus crisis effectively froze the U.S. economy and sent unemployment skyrocketing, Trump’s “irresponsible sugar-high tax cuts had already pushed us into a trillion-dollar deficit”. Fuck Wall Street, we're not beholden to continue to massively increase our debt just to keep them from going bonkers.
  3. noddyboy


    ElCubano likes this.
  4. Overnight


    Most of the taxcuts are set to expire in 2025 anyways. And we know by then a dem will be in office.

    No surprise.
  5. piezoe


    "Bonkers " sounds like an exceptionally good buying opportunity. I like that!

    The cuts were focused on Corporations and the top income brackets it would be nice to see these latter cuts reversed and a few more brackets put in. This could at least slow the growth of wealth disparity which is a very bad thing for the stability of a society. The Rich would still be rich and the Poor, still poor. But society would be better off. We need a serious effort to address loss of opportunity among the lower middle class. That probably means leaving at least some disposable income with them.
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020 at 10:19 PM
    Same Lazy Element likes this.
  6. Sleepy Joe would forget what he set out to do before any.of that happens
  7. piezoe


    Trump inherited an economy on track for full employment. Then he adopted recession policies in a full employment economy. The result might have been even more a-go-go had he not created constant turmoil with international markets in an attempt to placate his uneducated followers, in the hope they will re-elect him.("Too many Mexicans taking your jobs, I'll start a fight with Mexico; Too much competition from China for the products you make, I'll start a fight with China.")

    Now Trillions more have been dumped in because there is a genuine recession of an unusual sort. Once the recession is over, unless productivity magically increases more than expected -- unlikely -- the Central Bank will have to start withdrawing the excess dollars to hold inflation down.

    They can do this by selling bonds, which results in a temporary exchange of money for Treasuries. The Treasuries can be rolled over more or less indefinitely so long as there are buyers, but the cumulative effect of ever increasing bond servicing -- which the government can handle without limit-- might eventually result in too much outside money in the economy compared to productivity, i.e., inflation. Actually I'm uncertain of this. It is not immediately clear what the eventual outcome will be of ever increasing amount of U.S. Treasuries finding their way into the economy. Perhaps you should take my comments in this paragraph cum grano salis.

    Alternatively the government can raise taxes to remove money from the economy. This is a politically unattractive, but a very effective, means of reducing the amount of outside money in the economy that carries with it no future obligation, as bonds do.

    The major factor, in an economy's money supply, which can only be controlled quite indirectly by the C.B., is inside money or "Credit". Inside money is a recursive function of the state of the economy. It's demand regulated, and small changes in interest rates are notably ineffective in spurring, or dampening down, demand for credit. What is very effective and profitable to creditors in the early stages of a recovery is an increase in credit demand brought on by putting the lower middle class on a subsistence diet, so they must use credit to make ends meet. That results in a big pay day for creditors until one day the debtor class is maxed out on credit and can't pay on their debts.

    When the government spends a massive amount of outside money into the economy during boom times, one would ordinarily expect inflation. But that will also depend on where the money is. If it is efficiently mopped up into bonds than inflation can be checked. It's apparent that the central bank has been doing a pretty good job of money mopping in the U.S. economy. Another factor seems to be movement of money from circulation into corporate coffers where it may not be immediately spent or where it may be used for Stock buybacks with the sellers' proceeds ending up in bonds. Also, one should recognize the equities markets as destinations for money. Inflated equities are a place where ever increasing amounts of money may be tied up in shares. In market corrections large portions of the money previously tied up in shares moves into bonds. In either case, this money is not circulating in the goods and services markets.
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020 at 11:20 PM
    Snuskpelle and destriero like this.
  8. Maybe the market is pricing in a Trump win?

    It's also possible it sees Biden's position on China as bullish compared to Trump and counterbalances his taxation plans.

    Glad I don't try to trade based on my macro economic opinions as I'd likely frequently lose.
  9. Here4money


    y'all make it sound like Trump's tax policy was sound policy. Yeah, let's give corporate tax cuts on record low unemployment & ATH market. Let's bully the fed into lowering rates to zero while at it. If you didn't see this as a way to redistribute the pilfered treasury wealth to the top earners, I don't know what to tell you.
    Snuskpelle and destriero like this.
  10. Sound policy or not is really beside the point.

    The man is the devil re-incarnate and I ask the lord for forgiveness on every trade I make.

    I may have to make a rather large donation to some charity one day to cleanse myself of this guilt.

    (Actually, I really don't know the guy. I just go by what I read on his twitter feed. It may all be one long absurd joke, though one in poor taste in my opinion)