You do raise a good point about republican Presidents and recessions. It would be nice if they didn’t do that so frequently. However, the pattern is what it is. It all should get washed out in the averages and those recessions are a reflection of their governing philosophy.
All the programs in that genre running out, rent relief and so on. I don't remember the caption for all of them. Some bills have names that include other things, eh. But you got a chart. which is your usual response to any point. and you are going to be all set as long as the voting public is more persuaded by your charts than the economic realities they perceive in their own lives.
Debby Downer over here. Yes, the inflation and gas situation is ongoing but it is not all encompassing. The jobs recovery is stellar, wages are good. It’s going to be a choppy year economically, good news and bad news at the same time. I get you want to portray economic conditions as awful because you’re not exactly objective but putting those portrayals onto someone like me isn’t exactly the smartest move. I actually try to keep up with what is going on. I have an education and business experience with this stuff. I’m going to always, always drag this stuff back to reality. I will say we need a game changer with gas. We need a lot more supply ASAP. There’s only 40 something days to go until the summer mix enters the pumps and that could raise gas prices 45 cents. Big deal there. Also, I don’t care what anyone says inflation is transitory. It was right when the impact of the pandemic was being analyzed before it hit, it was right when delta hit and extended the timeline and it is right today. There is no structural imbalance in the economy or supply side outside of pandemic related interference. The biggest threat to the economy is the Fed raising interest rates too much and too fast. This chart below is too much, too fast.
1.4% rates are still extremely low historically.. not like I am rushing to put money in bonds and savings account to earn 1%.... just cosmetic
Oh, no one doubts that when voters go to the polls next Nov, that you will be sitting there with secret knowledge and charts up there on Mount Olympus that you know about but does not match their lived reality. They will vote in a way that rejects your views but, hey, you may still be right, so there is that. For the rest of the world what you think does not matter. Do what you gotta do. There is an saying amongst traders to wit: "you know that a stock is a dog when it fails to rally on good news." That's where Biden and your ilk are or are going to be in trouble. Biden has been in the shiiter and his polls are sub-toilet. But there are smatterings of good news that one can see if they close one eye and squint with the other and do a couple Hail Marys. The problem is, they will not lift him that much because people know that he and Kamala are dogs. Then what are you going to do? And yes, you will be right about inflation being "transitional." How can you be wrong when you keep adjusting the definition and length of transitional?
So we certainly have room to raise rates and we should raise rates to return to normalcy but too much too fast can be shocking and create a frenzy of borrowing to get ahead and a cool off at end. Jolts like that can be disruptive in themselves and that jolt down can get sticky. Then what will the fed do, cut rates or let the economy stagnate? What I would like is to avoid yo-yo interest rates. I don’t disagree with a rate hike in March though it’s just the signals are one after another for as far as into 2023. We will see.
You keep trying to act like the midterms aren’t the republicans to lose. They are supposed to take control of the legislature during an “off year.” If they don’t then they did something wrong. Yes, Biden is in the tank and he running like Trump did. Not good if looking for two terms. I get that too, I made an entire thread about it. I will go one further, you more than likely will not see democrats have control of the entire government for 30 years. So what. That’s the objective reality. It’s called being honest.
And you keep talking as though others are talking about just your normal offyear loss. Nope. Joe and the Skank are at historic lows and their party will be at historic lows. Especially with Joe not being at the top of the ticket. Oh wait, they lost a dozen seats even when he was at the top. As I said, he lost a pile just in 2020 so that saves the dems from losing them in 2022 which would otherwise have made the loss even greater, if that helps ya any. Yeh, I know. I am a giver. But yeh. As I keep saying. You got your own little Biden bootlicking program going that has no impact on his popularity or lack thereof and does not even lead you to project any optimism, and will not salvage the disaster coming at midterms. Crank up the charts even more. Maybe make them 3-D.