Biden Jumps to a 10 Point Lead in Latest Polling

This guy was leading Bush Senior by 16 points around this time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histo...ions#1988_United_States_presidential_election

 

Like most things polling has improved since 1988

 

The variance between the final polls and the actual result in 1988 was less than it was in 2016.

 

In April 2016 polls had Hillary ahead of Trump.In Nov 2016 polls had Hillary ahead of Trump.She got 3 million more votes.

What did April and Nov 1988 aggregate polls have?

 

On Nov 3rd 2018 Trumps approval rating was 42%. The next day Dems won The House by 10 million votes and 23 of 33 Senate races in Senate races in Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Nevada,Virginia ,Minnesota ,Arizona and Ohio as well as red states Arizona,West Virginia and Montana and every blue state race.

 

OK, got your point. So how you will evaluate Biden winning score in 2020?

 

It's all here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

 

In Nov 2019 Trumps approval rating was 42%.Later that month democrats won Governors races in Louisiana and Kentucky,2 of the most conservative states in the country.Trump campaigned heavily for both GOP candidates.

 

There were 11 different Hillary/Trump polls in April 2016 from 10 different pollsters.How many Bush/Dukakis polls were there in April 1988 and from how many different pollsters?

 

At least 10 million votes.