As we can see from the above charts, odds can change. If the US equities markets and the economy holds on until the elections, our incumbent President is going to have a lot of credibility going into the debates. The anybody but Trump tagline started in 2016. Please refresh my memory <grin>, how did that work out?
Agree. For example, if Biden gets nominated and pick black VP, even electoral win will be bloodbath for Trump. Many on the right forget he won with less than 100K votes 3 states, which is a rounding error on country of 320mil people. Dems will not stay home, like they did in 2016 guaranteed.
Odds change but the loser is behind most of the time like Trump is.2016 Dems stayed home and got 3 million more votes but lost The EC by 78,000 votes.Election turnout since 2016 suggest Dems wont be staying home in 2020 Trump doesn't seem as confident about the debates as you,he is threatening not to debate.
Trump would deservedly get slaughtered if he did not debate. Perhaps I should get my permits in advance an buy a “Tissue stand” for all the crying Republicans in 2020 as hedge against Trump not debating.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-rating-ap-poll-1455751 DONALD TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIDES TO 36%, THE LOWEST IT'S BEEN SINCE JANUARY BY ASHER STOCKLER ON 8/22/19 AT 1:50 PM EDT Amid numerous political scandals and an unfurling trade war with China that shows little sign of de-escalation, President Donald Trump lacks the broad confidence of the American public, according to a new AP-NORC poll. Sixty-two percent of U.S. adultsdisapproveof the way Trump is handling his job, compared with 36 percent who approve. Predictably, the partisan divides swing favorably or unfavorably towards the president depending on political affiliation. But, notably, the coveted class of self-identified political independents remains opposed to the president, with 65 percent disapproving of the way he is handling his job. Trump's approval ratings have not been this low in the monthly AP-NORC survey since January. While many of the conflicts and controversies that have emerged in recent months pertain to the trade war and Trump's management of the economy — including a warning sign that a recession may be on the horizon due to a metric known as the inverted yield curve — the public has not been scared off by the president's economic stewardship. Fifty-one percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, and 46 percent approve. Though this is a net negative rating, it indicates the public is largely divided on the matter, and represents Trump's highest job approval rating for any category measured in the AP-NORC poll. Crucially, independents are evenly split on Trump's handling of the economy. While they tend to mimic Democratic margins opposing Trump on nearly every other issue, on the economy, independents break 44 percent to 47 percent against Trump.
President Trump leads top Democrat candidates in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Zogby Analytics/24/7 Wall St. poll released Monday. The poll, which surveyed 897 likely U.S. voters August 9– 12, shows Trump narrowly topping all of his leading Democrat challengers. Respondents were asked, “If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, whom would you vote for?” Of the 897 respondents, 46 percent chose Trump, 45 percent chose Biden, and nine percent said they were unsure. While Biden fares better with millennial voters– 50 percent to Trump’s 38 percent – Trump does better with voters 65 and older, 56 percent to 40 percent. Trump also leads Biden among independent voters, 44 percent to Biden’s 36 percent. 24/7 Wall St reports: Biden does well with voters under the age of 50, more specifically millennials age 18-29 — Biden wins 50% to 38%. Trump, on the other hand, wins with voters older than 50, more specifically, voters aged 65+ —Trump leads Biden 56% to 40%. There were no surprises when it came to gender. Biden wins with women (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and Trump wins with men (Trumps is ahead 53% to 42%). Where Trump does his damage is he bests Biden with independents (Trump leads 44% to 36%), small-city voters (Trump leads 47% to 43%), suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%) and both candidates are tied with large-city voters (Biden leads 46% to 45%). When it came to race, Biden wins with African Americans (Biden leads 74% to 21%), but both candidates do well with Hispanics (Biden leads 48% to 46%). Potential voters were asked the same question, replacing Biden with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D). The results were as follows: 2020 National GE: Trump 46% (+1) Biden 45% . Trump 45% (+1) Sanders 44% . Trump 44% (+2) Harris 42% . Trump 45% (+2) Warren 43% . Trump 45% (+3) Buttigieg 42% Zogby Analytics/@247WallSt 8/9-12
It would be a shame if the Republicans lost it all because of their position on net neutrality. At least the telcos and some advertisers will be happy. For a while, anyway. I actually to see this issue as being a major difference maker for a lot of Independents.