That's not how I'm thinking about it. Yes, he's up in the polls... but he's up much further in the betting markets. The reason for this, I believe, is because bettors are careful with their money and so they incorporate the effects of the electoral college. Plus, bettors are not voting, they are looking for a return on their investment so they're much less biased. The rough calculation they've made is there are a couple of ultra-tight swing states... the Dems need both, and therefore there is a closer to 1/4 chance of that happening. Well, those aren't exact numbers obviously. But on the whole, that's the dynamic at play; and the theory fits the data reasonably well. Otherwise, how else can you rationally (objectively?) explain such a gaping disparity between polls and odds?
1. You misread my comments if you think I said trump loses. 2. The only radicals that went to violence after the election were GOP babies on January 6th.. When trump won the dems filled the streets in protest in D.C. but I dont remember them storming the capital, asking for anyone to be hanged, attacking the capitol police or tried to get into the House Chamber...
Kamala is sinking herself more than trump is because we expect trump to sound like an idiot...Kamala is supposed to be more articulate and clear headed... she is losing to a 78 year old egotistical narcissist who clearly simply wants to be adored and idolized.... says a lot. 20 years ago a trump would have been beaten in a landslide. kamala had her bump and keeps slipping so I do not think she has what it takes to get the middle voters energized. People lately would rather be entertained so they vote for trump in a "let's see what he can do with no covid" for shits and giggles.
You give bettors way too much credit. It's very simple, polls translate to betting markets in a non-linear fashion. For any swing state, if Trump is 51/49 in polls, betting markets may be 51 cents for Trump. But if Trump is 53/47 in polls, betting markets will be more like 65 cents for Trump, since they think it is unlikely a poll can be that far off.
Covid only hit U.S. in Feb 2020. People already saw what Trump could do in the 3 years prior. He never solved immigration. And here we are. I do recall back then Trump on a daily basis claiming Dow hit new highs. Unfortunately for him, Dow is even higher now.
Yes, I probably do give bettors too much credit. But the market as a whole demands respect. And, I agree 100% that my analysis is idealized. But the point is, odds give insight that can't simply be dismissed. So, it surprises me that you think Trump loses... he's ahead in both. It stands to reason that he wins. What I'm questioning are the reasons you gave for him losing... which I haven't seen clearly expressed. So, they seem to me, just as hopeful as OP.
You're right, I did misread it. I still think J6 was overblown and what's coming if Trump wins will confirm my belief. We'll see. As the saying goes, I'm often wrong but never uncertain.
Allan Lichtman. I don't believe in polls. But if you want to go down the polling route, polls were biased towards Republicans in the most recent elections in 2022.
IDK who that is and you're not presenting a coherent thesis. Seems to me you're just reverting to a psychological rationalization of your beliefs. You're entitled to believe anything you want, but I'm certainly not going to be adopting any whimsical ideas. GL