https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/poli...warren-bernie-sanders-black-voters/index.html The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large Updated 12:15 PM ET, Wed October 23, 2019 (CNN)Joe Biden is ahead! By a lot! And by a lot more than he was just a few months ago! That's the obvious takeaway from a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS examining the 2020 Democratic primary. The former vice president stands alone in first place with 34% followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 19% and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 16%. None of the other 15(!) candidates in the race made it into double digits. That's very good news for Biden. As is the fact that he has jumped 10 points since a CNN poll done in September while support for both Warren and Sanders stayed generally static over the same time. But, that's not the real story here. The real story is how Biden is ahead in this poll. And that answer is the key to understanding whether or not Biden will ultimately be the party's nominee. Since I'm a good guy, I'll tell you the answer: Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals. Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll: Whites Biden 27% Warren 23% Sanders 15% Non-Whites Biden 42% Sanders 16% Warren 13% That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot. Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics. And that process starts in South Carolina, the fourth state to vote in the nominating process -- the primary is set for February 29, 2020 -- and the first one where blacks have historically comprised a majority of voters. Polling done in the Palmetto State produces similar data to the CNN national poll. A Fox News poll conducted in early October showed Biden cruising with 41% compared to 12% for Warren and 10% for Sanders. Again, the breakdown of the vote by race is instructive: Whites Biden 24% Warren 20% Sanders 13% Blacks Biden 50% Sanders 9% Warren 8% Biden's path to the nomination starts with a win in South Carolina. If he can't win there, the race is over for him. What remains to be seen is whether black voters will stay with Biden if/when he loses Iowa and/or New Hampshire and Nevada in the days leading up the the first-in-the-south primary. If they do -- and there are no signs right now of any sort of erosion (in fact, quite the opposite!) -- and he wins South Carolina, Biden has an even money (and maybe better) chance at being the nominee. Given all of that, it's not an exaggeration to say that non-white voters hold Joe Biden's fate in their hands.
Biden won't campaign in California but goes there for fundraising meetings, that's about it. Yeh, I know: Joe has South Carolina in his pocket so he is all set. That seems to be the prevailing mood and strategy in his campaign and among the demmerhoids here. He knows he is not going to get the "progressive" vote in California but you can't just balkanize the country and the party to that degree. California is what? - a quarter of the delegate votes or so. And anyone in the campaign- unless they are an idiot- looking at you Joe- knows that a brokered convention is a very real possibility and you are going to need to have built good will with people who you previous wrote off. He is also in sort of major pickle where the primaries are coming up and he is having to do fundraisers more than campaign. Watch out dat. He is running a dumphuk, slow-rolling campaign. Indian girl sniffing around very hard trying to find something to hunt down and kill. Y'all know my bias, and I give Bernie points for it too, rule number one is that you must be able to go out in the hunt, and want to go out on the hunt. HIllary did not like to go out on the hunt and Joe just wants to show up at the union hall and act avuncular. Biden to snub California Democratic convention — again https://www.politico.com/states/cal...alifornia-democratic-convention-again-1225951
That data shows that my pairs trade - SHORT BIDEN and LONG WARREN- is still working for me, except I am not making enough to cover commissions yet. I am thinking of going short another contract on Biden to help move the trade a little. Yeh, sure, that creates some upside risk but I dont see a lot of upside risk on Biden. Definitely dont want to get caught long on Biden when it tanks.
Ahh. it's screwball. you can qualify on the number of donars or per cent in four national polls or if your moon is in uranus on the day of the debate. Now for the next debate you can also qualify if you have X percent in the polls for early primary states. Just to show you how absurd it is, Tom Steyer shows up late, and qualifies not only for the October debate but for the November debate and no one likes him or even knows who he is. Get rid of him. How did he get there anyway. Some stupid formula of some donor buddies or something. A couple more will fall out by Nov. debate...but jeez....let's... move this along. This is a six person race. Four for prez, and a couple more to hang around for vp. So we should be at six. By December we should be at four to start giving some focus to this clown show. But it is not going that way. People dont have to drop out of the race just because they are not in the debate but we should not have to see them forever either. Enough already.
Joe is going to take a raft of shiite from Warren and Bernie for accepting PAC money. He swore that he would not do it but now he is crabwalking and weaseling around by saying that it is not his PAC and he cannot control who decides to set up a PAC to help him...wink....wink. The comrades are not going to give him a pass on that, nor should they. What else can he do though? He is running out of cash before the game has barely begun. He counters by saying that it is just because he entered the race late. Sure, but wasnt that the whole rationale about why he could and would enter late? - because all the donors were waiting for him and he was well-known so did not have to hustle for dollars- all he had to do was announce that he was available- OOPS! ON STEROIDS!!! Warren and Bernie are going to pluck his plugs out over this. Clowns gotta be clowns. Ain't no cure for being a clown. JOE BIDEN’S SUPER PAC IS BEING ORGANIZED BY CORPORATE LOBBYISTS FOR HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY, WEAPONS MAKERS, FINANCE https://theintercept.com/2019/10/25/joe-biden-super-pac/