I don't quote this to be rude or try and be funny, but I remember this post from yours back in the summer and was surprised to see you flip 180 re Biden - as I am a Brit I do not follow it as closely, but am interested in it from a political point of view (i.e. not applicable to markets, chart reading for that) - could you explain your thoughts a bit on what has changed if you do not mind?
Just to clarify - you wrote something different to the above in the ES thread recently. I ask as I remember the above post very vividly and thought it made a lot of sense at the time, there are likely a lot of Americans who would happily hold their nose and vote for Biden but would prefer to hold their nose and vote for Trump if the alternative was Sanders.
Many people think that working folks aren't paying attention, but once the debates began blue collar folks in Pennsyltucky started paying attention, and since September I have found many have decided to stick with Trump or go with Bernie. Many apparently view a Biden Presidency as a third term of Obama and they still hate Obama for Obamacare and trade. The Dem establishment and the Suburbanites will gush about Obama. He is not fondly remember among the working class. Trump was elected by the working class. The Dems are viewed, rightly I believe, as having abandoned the working people in favor of "identity politics." I think Biden will struggle to get them. But if Biden does get the nomination and selects Bernie as a running mate (150 years of experience lol) and puts Medicare for All and a few other things into the platform, then he might have a chance.
Yet, rather than "back away" the very first thing Joe did when he smelled some victory was to blow both legs off by making Beto O'Dork his anti-gun point man. Of course he thinks that's how he can get Texas. Austin anyway. No one ever said Biden was smart. https://nypost.com/2020/03/03/joe-biden-promises-to-put-beto-orourke-in-charge-of-gun-control/
Biden is sinking into Dementia at a startling rate. He has already lapped Trump, who likewise has manifested cognitive decline. Two candidates whose IQ's are about equal to their respective ages.
Ah I see, sounds similar to here and the Corbyn/Labour situation from December in which Labour lost a large number of seats in the North/Midlands. Exactly the same thing re 'identity politics' and the shift to the left which left them in favour of nationalising everything and putting together a very odd manifesto that very few could take seriously - as well as having their MPs and candidates call anyone and everyone racist. Labour are potentially a bit stuck as their membership has effectively been 'infiltrated' by far-left activists and thus shifting back to a position from which they can win is going to take a long time, regardless of who they elect as leader. I always thought Trump putting the 'squad' front and centre of the Democrat's was a brilliant move at the time, I wonder if it will start to pay dividends in the coming months - a ready made way for him to refer to what you highlighted re "identity politics" and abandoning the working class and the ludicrous policies some of these far left types put forward.
I wouldn't discount the influence of the New Left. Trump won by running to Hillary's left on trade, on endless wars, and even on health care - his working class supporters knew this in their gut though they haven't been able to articulate it intellectually.