Great, Steve, you truly blessed to have intellect and perception which support your style of trading: great memory, sports memory, pattern recognition skills, fast reflexes. But think of the rest of us, less gifted, who, for whatever insane reason, want to trade, too. Like me: failing memory (incipient Alzheimer's), no sports memory (a total klutz), no pattern recognition (can hardly see), reflexes of a punchdrunk (old, fat and slow). What do I do? Voudoun, that's what. Ever wonder why price reverses in mid-air nowhere near any obvious S/R? I KNOW why. My finger has pushed T at a particular tick while you are still waiting for that five minute bar to complete and confirm. But the cost to my soul is great. All those human skin voodoo dolls and chickens' entrails eventually weigh heavily. Not to mention the occasional virgin sacrifice. PM me if you would like to buy a Hershey effigy, complete with pins to stick in the joints.
For an intelligent guy I find it hard to understand that you are not focused on the mental aspects of trading rather than trading methods. Surely you know by now that there are some simple things that work. Maybe they dont make 3x the daily range but they do well enough to make a living. Point threes (flags) work, pure and simple. Track them for awhile. Over the long run they do pretty well. Trade only the ones off new highs and lows and the winning percentage goes way up. People seem to love complicated strategies. Too bad.
I'm not going to apologize for being younger (and therefore faster reflexes and better vision), and I definitely do have my shortcomings. I am very risk adverse, I can be too timid even in the face of times when I know its a great opportunity, I try and be a perfectionist too much. Its not like I am perfect by any means, I have had tough times just like anyone else who trades for a living. We all have to work around those things. Perhaps, if you truly are old and have a failing memory and no pattern reg skills, you shouldnt be trading off 1 min charts. Maybe you should be swing trading on a longer time frame so that you dont HAVE to react so fast and decisions can be made slower than bar to bar? I mean seriously Mike, you are so anti SCT yet you make it clear that you have all these issues which would surely preclude you from success using Jacks method anyways. Ever think that maybe its YOU and not the method? And I'm not trying to be a wise ass, its a completely legit question for self analysis. Sometimes a particluar method is just not suitable for someone but changing the specs (time frame or possibly even the mkt that one trades) can be hugely helpful.
Good Mike, you have something that works for you. Can you not just be satisfied with that? This is what I dont understand about all the Hershey haters, they all claim to be successful themselves. You and Trader28 are the main ones who come to mind. Since you guys both trade simple and yet profitable methods, why do each of you always feel the need to argue with others on methods that they see fit for themselves? As for my mothers maiden name, I'm not worried you are with her this weekend as I am visiting my parents for the long weekend with my wife and my mom is down stairs as we speak
Jack is who he is, I dont know him at all, I've never spoken to him. As a matter of fact, he sent me a PM a couple years ago regarding something I posted and I remember blowing him off. I didnt need to listen to what he had to say, I mean, who the heck was this Grob guy anyways? Then, as I got into the journal and read some of his stuff, my appreciation for his complexity grew. He is definitely a guy who attracts attention, both good and bad. Just going off of ET, we can see that no other single individual garnishes this much attention. All that being said, I understand why the "B team" are they way they are, but all that really means little to me. I've chosen to focus on the good, which is the crux of it all....reading the mkt correctly! If the lessons being taught didnt allow for that to happen, you'd have no "A team"!! Think about it, who the heck would want to defend someone if what they provided didnt work at all?
When I first got on the board I thought Jack was nuts and we had a few exchanges. After reading Spyder for awhile I decided I had misjudged the man. I still get my info from Spyder but since he got his from Jack I have to give the old man his due. I may not understand him but I do understand Spyder so I guess I understand him by transference. It boggles my mind that anybody would let personalities get in the way of learning. I guess greed is good in one sense as it got me past Jacks persona.
Hypo, I believe that is the answer to all these threads on whether the Jack Hershey method is quantifiable or not. A true sceptic meets Spydertrader, sits down with him, watches him trade, asks him questions, perhaps buys him a cup of coffee for his extreme generosity (if the offer is still on the table)... But, the crux is that you (if you are that sceptic) must be suspicious of the claims, but can't have made up your mind about this yet. Otherwise, the experience won't help the people you relate it to (the people who read your posts) at all. I read in some thread or document somewhere that originally Spyder got together with Jack Hershey in a similar way and that's how all this started...but it might have been in a chatroom instead of over coffee. Sometimes I get confused, get my facts mixed up, etc...
Hypostomus: Jack & Spyder are right!...well sort of, maybe, almost. 1) re. trendlines on ES: It's simple. I've been using the same 2 for years. One for up trends & one for down trends. Keep cloning, over & over for each abc swing...Google "gold trend gradients"...by Daan Joubert 2) re. gaussians: Think Supply & Demand and their volume relation to price action... Wyckoff or Tom Williams Not on their radar: Statistics...I trade volatility zones, figured for each 135m bar. If price hits the first, very high probability it will reach the second, etc, etc. - Similar to "Jackson Zones".
Hello RoughTrader: I am sorry your thread got hijacked by the self-righteous psychos. I am also coding SCT, but I am taking a different path. I am learning SCT first. I am learning it manually -- drawing the channels and sorting out the gaussians. I observe the YM, and pay attention to the Stretch and Squeeze. I read the flaws and watch out for the Wall. I seek out messages in the ticks, and the pairs, and the spikes. The harmonics are elusive, I only see them in my dreams. But when I put everything together, I see SCT in the not too distance future. I am not coding SCT in a mechanical sense. i.e. It does not draw channels... and it won't be extending the lines to find the FTT. FTT is a human perspective. To code SCT in a computer program, I looked beyond the "human" box -- I have to understand the gist of SCT... what makes a long exhausts itself and turns into a short? FTT does not make the market turn. The FTT is only an attribute of the exhaustion. The channel is a visual aid; it is designed for human consumption. It helps a human see the market turn. For a computerized SCT, the computer can go right to the heart of the matter, and pin point the exhaustion within the price and volume behavior. When we talk about price/volume behavior, many people automatically jump to the conclusion of the 5min price bar and volume bar. This is where the dim wits stop: They came to the end of their analysis because all they have are the price bar and volume bar. Their analysis are static, in the face of a dynamic price/volume/time/bid/ask/wall/str/squ relationship. Their conclusion is obvious -- 5min is too late, "Always-in" cannot be done, or that there are no valuable information to be had in P/V, etc., For me, this is where my journey begins. Jack/Spyder provided tools for advanced level analysis. While Hippo is still stuck on whether YM leads ES, I am spending time on these advanced tools, and learning how they work together to provide the perfect signal. More later. TUMS
Hi RoughTrader, Grob109 = Jack Hershey here is a programmable form of trading which hershey devised: quote grob109: Description: Indicators define rockets. The indicator values are determined by considering one clear major factor. That is: building wealth at no risk. All the indicators are designed for integration over a spectrum of fractals. Concurrently they are designed for the skill level of the user. Beginners need the highest protection against failure and secondly losses. The other side of the coin provides two central trader themes that are absolute requirements continuing reinforcing success and continuing display of the NLP pictures that lay the foundation consistent decision making excellence Rockets appear daily. They are fast paced trends. Beginners enter rockets after the FBO period. The digits 13 and 14 in the indicators assure this. Making the slow line on the Stochastic pass out side the 20/80 band further assures we are past FBO. Requiring a minimum money velocity at the inception of the trend, assures that the physics concept of momentum is at play. The design of MACD as a 5, 13, 6 configuration assures this and one other significant consideration: preventing indicator bridging. The original designer defaults were done before PCâs and the advent of PCâs significantly affected market operations. This shift caused most indicators to bridge. Rocketeers are kept in trades until risk reappears. You see that the right channel line BO and the failure of the slow stochastic are concurrent. I have done the illustration in a manner that rocketeers can see how icebergers are trading as well. There are four levels of iceberging. Each includes more risk and more profits. Rocketeers enter on B and exit on C. They see the trend begin and then the indicators fall in place. MACD, then volume, then fast and slow line of the slow stochastic. Entry at 1046.3. The stochastic âentwinesâ until C. Exit at about 1040.2. Profit 6.1 less costs. The four levels of Icebergers exist. Level IV enters on 50% crossover with divergence of the fast stochastic lines. See A. This is earlier and higher risk. Level Iâs enter as do racketeers. Levels II and III enter using the rocket rules on the fast stochastic (5, 2, 3). Levels I and II exit at E when the fast stochastic comes out the other side of the 20/80. Level IIâs reverse at E into a long trade. Level IVâs reverse at D on the 50% where lines are divergent. Point x shows a successful 50% cross over with divergence that fails. This affects only level IVâs; they go long on the divergence and reverse back into short as the divergence fails (convergence and x=over sequence). See FR. EXECUTION The following text is oriented to execution. Execution has four parts: Data Gathering to assure you have considered all factors and to assure you have associated the go/no go criteria with each and every factor. This absolutely destroys the NLP picture of using signals to trade; concurrently it builds the picture that the total salient market conditions must be considered at all times. Analysis sorts out and combines all aspects of the data set to obtain a âgoâ if and only if, the criteria is met. This is an intellectual process. Decision making. Decisions are based upon beliefs. Beginners have an awesome difficulty with which to deal. Their beliefs come from the past and are founded on all segments of their past lives. The Tony Robbins stuff can create quite a disparity just as parental Rich Dad, Poor Dad factors can. Parents also convey as âmoney as religionâ themes of ethics and morals. Beginners have to create their personal NLP pictures for investing and trading. First, this strategy provides repeated provisional pictures based on rational logic. Repeated success allows the new provisional pictures to hold more sway in the personâs make up. A process is unfolding. By setting holistic pervasive criteria for trading rockets, the traders learns to share responsibility with the market and he learns to not step over the line and usurp responsibilities accorded only to the market. Pictures infill and become comprehensive enough to assure a routine of extracting the capital offered and available form the market. This foundation cannot be eroded. Lastly, one final initial picture is built as a beginner. Initial capital is removed when the beginner has made 120 points in the ES. This is a tripling of the 2000 nominal margin for one contract, the maximum # of contracts tradable in the beginner mode. Action results with entries and exits. Using the results of a decision based upon the congruence of beliefs and analysis results, causes trading actions. They are swift and decisive and correct. A. Data Gathering Price: No Criteria Volume: Band B (10 to 12K) or better. MACD: The histogram has to show a divergence of = or > than the absolute value of 0.4. This means, for long trends +0.4 and for short trends -0.4. This value is an initiating value only. It does not have to be maintained nor does itâs absence dictate an exit. Slow Stochastic (14, 1, 3) Fast and slow lines out side the 20/80. Variations: use 25/75, use end of bar only measurements. Both variations are higher risk. Other Formations: Any prior formations may exist. Rockets form channels; use the channel report to carry out any of all the channel possibilities. B. Analysis KEY ELEMENT: All criteria of data gathering must be met. They are achieved in a sequence that is not predetermined. The last one arriving in time gates the decision and action for entry. Monitoring continues. During monitoring the exit is determined by the slow stochastic. The least risk exit occurs when the fast line goes inside 20/80. Any continuation of the hold on the rocket is terminated when the slow line goes inside the 20/80. Variations: use end of bar measurements. C. NLP Decision Making A âgoâ from analysis is reinforced by NLP pictures saying that rockets are valid for making money using the entry and exit rules. The market provides the circumstance through measurements of indicators. Action Beginner: Come off sidelines and trade one contract. Intermediates: Confirm your iceberg entry and determine that the iceberg is now operating at low risk. SCT. Follow SCT rules as superceding rocket rules. This setup precedes SCT. Maybe you can see what happens when you run this one mechanically.