Yesterday, we had several fuds: tether, double-spend, Yellen, plus the technicals on the charts with bitcoin going down hard. All the crypto haters here on ET were celebrating making posts and stuff, now bitcoin is back over $33.5K (from a low of $28.8 yesterday) and the haters unsurprisingly disappear. I said I'm going on hodl mode yesterday. I stopped my planned cashout sales of bitcoin. The bitcoin (cryptos) dip yesterday is nothing new or special, but what's different nowadays is that the institutional investors, the big $$$ money (i.e. Blackrock, Guggenheim, JP Morgan, Citibank, Stone Ridge, Goldman Sachs, etc.) are buying the cheap bitcoins. I just want people to be careful and make sure if you're a bitcoin (cryptos) investor that you're not shaken out by these fuds and dips which may be coordinated by the big money investors. I have investments in this space. The haters don't even short bitcoin (cryptos) so they do not have skin in the game
I put 30% of my account into GBTC yesterday when bitcoin was 30k and the premium to NAV was in the low single digits. Between that and physical BTC I've probably got about 75% of my net worth in bitcoin now. It's way higher EV than any ETF, until at least 200k. If it gets too far ahead of the stock to flow model, or the futures contango drops to low single digits, that'll be my sell signal.
I posted about Discount Friday, but I have to apologize, I was wrong. It was Discount Thursday! Seriously John, you are on EliteTRADER, not r/cryptocirclejerk. You should have sold over 40K and rebought under 30K, so for every 3 coins sold you would have an EXTRA coin!!! AND you would be in profits right now.
Pekelo, 1.) I wish I was a good trader, I'm not even wishing to be a great trader, but I'm neither. I am in profits, though 2) What about intelligence, or smartness? I think maybe I'm ok, I can do certain things, but I do not think I'm that smart. So, the first one is easy to mitigate. I don't trade. I buy and hold crypto investments, ready for the worst, hope for the best. On the 2nd item, I cheat. How? I follow the smart money. On ET, the 2 smartest posters I've watched the posts for many years are destriero (riskarb, the reason my nick is johnarb, that's how much I admire his intelligence) and Maverick74. I'm simply in awe, reading their complex options positions and discussions of the greeks, where literally up to this day, I still do not understand more than a little bit. destriero was long bitcoins and made lots of profits. Hope he's still invested in bitcoin now. I follow Maverick74 on Twitter and he's invested in bitcoin. How about outside of ET, they say follow the smart money? Or sometimes follow the big money since they have much resources for research. You can google the following terms below and see the results for yourself. What do you think is +EV on bitcoin, short or long bitcoin? If you trade it, then you'll have to figure out your timing and tax obligations. I prefer to make it easy, if you know what I'm sayin'.... 1. Paul Tudor Jones bitcoin 2. Stanley Druckenmiller bitcoin 3. Guggenheim bitcoin 4. Fidelity bitcoin 5. Citibank bitcoin 6. Goldman Sachs bitcoin 7. PayPal bitcoin 8. Microstrategy bitcoin 9. Raoul Pal bitcoin 10. Fundstrat bitcoin 11. Michael Novogratz bitcoin 12. JP Morgan bitcoin 13. ARK invest bitcoin 14. Stone Ridge bitcoin 15. Square bitcoin 16. MassMutual bitcoin 17. Bill Miller bitcoin I know I've missed others. If you're not following the smart money, who are you following wrt bitcoin as an investment asset?
I like to have a realistic view on the market. It's always nice to think of the good side of making money, but nobody wants to think about the downside. And certain news events do affect the market. So whenever I post anything negative I'm not doing it to spread negativity and make people sell (even though that's what I did) haha! But I do it because I am trying to have a realistic view of what the market is capable of. I'm not some moonboy that thinks "Oh, if I just buy 1 dollar in Bitcoin then maybe one day I'll be a millionaire!" No, I try to think about all possible scanairios and think about how other traders are going to react, how the market can be manipulated, how dumb money is going to react, and try to use that as an advantage. This Tether case I think is going to have a bad reaction. If you look at XRP that token is going nowhere since they had their lawsuit, and they are stuck at 29 cents, and have been now for years. Very sad pathetic coin... If Tether gets sued and Tether printing stops then it's going to be humpty dumpty time.
@johnarb I keep saying it you are a better person than I am talking to others who would waste your time. @Pekelo Post your trades then. Where did you short BTC at 40K and cover at 30K with proof? You are the definition of a clown.
Myself. Seriously, I haven't found anybody better. But just because I know it is going to rain, I don't always bring an umbrella. I mentioned earlier Kagi charts to time buy/sell. It is literally a red/green, go/no go type of chart. You want a longer timeframe like 1 H or 1D so you don't get too many signals. Nevertheless the daily chart gave a sell signal at 35K and it is still on red. One of the best way to use it: Use 2 different timeframes together and enter/exit when both are in the same color. Like a daily with an hourly chart together. (currently both are red) https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/btc-usd-chart (this is a live, free chart)
[Disclosure: Bitcoin is now my biggest pfolio position, diversified more than half of Cel and 90% of Xmr to Eth and other alts] To me, bitcoin long position is a high probability trade (investment) right now priced at ~$32K As the title of this post says, bitcoin experienced some bad news (fud's), and pushed btc to below $30K, and yet, btc bounced back to where it is now. Bitcoin is showing strength, price-wise, even with overbought conditions for the past month. There's a huge demand right now from institutions and retail. We know this because of Grayscale (GBTC) numbers which are coming from institutions (87% per the CEO), and PayPal & Square for retail Tether fud and regulatory fud have been around for many years. Bitfinex bank said every USDT is backed by more than enough reserves. We have yet to see what Yellen will do but can it be as bad as Munuchin's last minute proposals on crypto regulations? we shall see If we let fud influence getting out or not investing in bticoin, then we have fallen for the manipulation. Institutions and big money investors are not being affected, they are buying during the dips, and that should tell us something about their confidence in bitcoin I'm awaiting for some major catalysts that can push the bitcoin price up very quickly above $40K or even higher than $50K There are (supposedly) conversations between Elon Musk and MSTR Michael Saylor on getting Elon to put some of Tesla's cash reserves into bitcoin. What's interesting about MSTR is that when they release their earnings possibly in the next few weeks, it will show that MSTR is making more $ on their bitcoin investment than what it has made in their business for the past 20 years Michael Saylor (MSTR) has a conference on Feb 3-4 with CEO's of companies to provide them with the playbook of how MSTR invested in bitcoin. If a company like AAPL with $300B in cash would just put $1B into bitcoin, that would be huge and may start an avalanche Given the huge demand of bitcoin on the PayPal and Square platform and how bitcoin has boosted the PayPal app engagement, which had been enjoyed by Square Cash app for a while since it was the first to allow bitcoin purchase, doesn't it make sense for Apple Pay, Google Android Pay or even Samsung Pay to add bitcoin to their payment platform? It seems a no-brainer, especially for Samsung Pay https://www.coindesk.com/tether-bank-deltec-stablecoin-reserves
These bitcoin hodlers were not worried about the fud's, in fact, they took advantage of the dip. They're not even making any attempts to conceal their actions (by distributing to different bitcoin addresses) And this has been going on, same thing happened with the previous bitcoin dip. This class of bitcoin investors keep growing their holdings, so I don't really see how bitcoin can go back to $20K, it's not like these hodlers are scared money https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-wh...says-coins-are-moving-to-very-strong-holders/ .
So John, what is your explanation of BTC dropping 30% with all these institutional demand and general interest?