Beware - Late By Historical Standards, But Bound To Arrive

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Apr 25, 2007.

  1. That looks delicious. Pass the orange sauce.
     
    #11     Apr 25, 2007
  2. Arabs are looking to destablize Europe and the French Elections are in play. We may see a BLACK SWAN in Paris.

    The BLACK SWAN will propbably be sighted outside the US.

    However, I wouldn't go short until the SWAN is sighted and the first wave of reactions come. There will be plenty of time to make money on the retreat.

    E:cool:
     
    #12     Apr 25, 2007
  3. With the myriad of global markets and products I'd imagine a 3 sigma event happens somewhere with greater than expected frequency. It may be a Malaysian stock that falls 90% ect...Or California utility rates a few years back.

    By definition a "Black Swan" must be a shock event. A 6% down day in the Dow doesn't qualify. Down 22% does.

    Many true "Black Swans", market wise, have been to the upside.

    To many investors (myself included) a new all time high in the Dow after the backdrop of 2000-2002's plunge is a "Black Swan."
    In the summer of 2002 I would have placed the odds of a 1500 SPX in 2007 at 10,000-1.

    To yield starved pension fund managers the notion of a 4.75% long bond coupled with $700 gold, $60 crude and record deficits is a "Black Swan."

    If Golden State knows off the Mav's in NBA round one, BIG, BIG "Black Swan".
     
    #13     Apr 25, 2007
  4. Black Swans are, by definition, non-predictable.

    If I had to guess, it will be either

    1) Energy crisis

    2) China or even Asia meltdown

    3) Hedge Fund crisis - industry wide

    4) Massive geopolitical


    It's late. History tells us something is bound to happen sooner rather than later.
     
    #14     Apr 25, 2007
  5. Isnt that something like the 'meme' Vic Neiderhoffferrer spoke about in one of his (cant remember which) books?
     
    #15     Apr 25, 2007
  6. Black Swan 1929, 1987, 9/11.

    Go buy a lottery ticket, its the same thing.
     
    #16     Apr 25, 2007