The way things are moving in wall street are clear strange... Its gonna be upside for short moment and start moving red soon.. How much is upside? again hit a 14k again and slide all the way back!! This fed cut is not a solution for this issue.. We really need to wait to see this season to go off..
All the way over 14k a 3rd time? Get perma-bulls nice and hard and take their legs out again. Get those orange banners going, cut those interest rates. Great job America! Can fading the FED work again on Dec. 11th?
Pump- The Discount Window will get a 50 BP cut and the FF a 1/4. I argued for this last time and Big B didn't listen. Now he knows I was right. Any 50 cut should get a nice response from the market. Remember all the cycle turn dates we have laid out for you in prior threads... I don't have my notes in front of me but Dec 5th marks a low and a turn up we may have jumped the gun by a few days or we may retest that low Mon or Tuesday before taking off... then it's clear sailing until (I think the 20th)... ~ stoney
I think they do 1/4 on the discount window and 1/4 on the FF. The market is anticipating a 50BP cut, not going to happen in my opinion especially after todays GDP.
Non other than Mr Bill Gross on TV a moment ago predicted that stonedinvestor is correct. In fact by cutting the discount window more than the FF rate he will force 3 month LIBOR down which is at the crux of the matter. In all Mr Gross indicated I was brilliant and constructive in my analysis and that you Anthlomank8 are not. ~ stoney
ooooooo never mind then! If Bill Gross think's it's right then it must be! Whew, Im glad we've got him on the situation.
The crux of the matter is that you cannot market...(therefore value) worthless assets. It's more than an interest rate problem. It's a combination of ARM resets, and not being able to market assets that were previously worth SOMETHING. The books on these companies were "cooked". No one cared though because if everyone does it.....then it's all fine and dandy. That is until it all comes undone.
The assets aren't worthless of course unless you rush to sell them. It's a bit like what got Japan in trouble and deflation and THAT might be the end result. Bankers I 've spoken too see the crap quality assets as 98b cents on the dollar that ain't bad considering everything we have seen and heard. A lot of this is fear to lend now I've spoken to private bankers all day about mortgages and I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.. The Fed, LIBOR they don't really effect the mortgage rate like I thought- They set the rate if they are nervous the rates are high and that blissful moment when we all refinanced they had just all lost their minds in a greed to finance the housing boom... It's going to all be very interesting from here on out. ~ stoney