Betting serious SIZE on MO

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by drukes1234, Jan 7, 2006.

  1. On Friday I put some serious size into a trade long Altria. I'm not going into this trade because I have any more confidence in this trade working out than any of my other positions, however with the breakup value of MO being in the $100 area which is over $20 higher than the current share price, and a logical stop being about $2.50 below the current share price, I think the risk/reward is astronomical.

    Any thoughts?
  2. The title of your post is rather distrubing, mate.

    Methinks you're gambling rather than investing...savy?

    CMF 0N M0 is rather low

    Clearly you've never been to Singapore.
  3. I'll gamble every day of the week if the risk/reward is 10:1

    Plus I've done my research on the stock and I'm not throwing my money up blindly.
  4. Isnt MO due for another court decision in FL sometime this month?
  5. You are gambling on the legal liability risk of the company, even if it is rigged heavily in favor of the big corporates. You also did not calculate the break up value of the company correctly, it's not that simple when the goodwill is that high. Can't just go by Enterprise Value vs Market Cap when it comes to a company like MO. Look through their assets, most of them are not straight forward.

    I think you can make profit on the trade but if you're looking for a 20 point move only, you're gonna be dissapointed.

  6. I put your probability on gettting your 10-1 at 5%...still a good bet? me thinks not
  7. Arnie


    Well, one thing you got going for you is that there is a lot of fear out there. I like your odds.

  8. Good Luck and don't listen to those who try and tell you your gambling and not investing....Of course your gambling.


    Trading is gambling and anyone who says different is in serious denial...Hell, I made well over 6 figures in 2005 just gambling on Google...Loading up on Calls before each earnings release...Trading and trading on earnings before they are released is nothing more than gambling..

    Funny how so many gamblers here, Oops, I mean the great Nicolas Darvis and his book"


    " I began to see Wall Street as it really was--a gambling house, peopled with dealers, croupiers, and touts on one side and winners and suckers on the other side. I had been a winner and was determined to stay one. So I began to acquaint myself with the workings and the workers, the myths and the mysteries that swirled around this second Las Vegas. I reckoned the odds and learned how to cut down on them and this is my story--one gambler against the biggest gambling house in the world"

    Nicholas Darvas

  9. What have you been smoking? :D
  10. Also MO has a fantastic dividend
    #10     Jan 8, 2006