betting on horse races vs. trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dtrader98, Aug 6, 2008.

  1. Yes, I've made the same argument myself on plenty of earlier posts. That however, does not negate his quote I was focusing on, nor does it change the application towards the context in which I was using it.

    That being said; always great to have your wit and intelligence liven any discussion.
     
    #51     Aug 7, 2008
  2. gnome

    gnome

    Most life insurance premiums are guaranteed for a certain period or even life. We're not talking about property and casualty insurance in this example.
     
    #52     Aug 7, 2008
  3. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    my bad...didnt read "life" in front of insurance.....peace.

    Someone please call wikipedia, websters and the rest of the blokes and please explain that gambling is not what they are defining it to be...
     
    #53     Aug 7, 2008
  4. Perhaps those dictionary guys don't trade. :D
     
    #54     Aug 7, 2008
  5. Plenty of card counters have blown up because they over bet during their periods of advantage.
     
    #55     Aug 7, 2008
  6. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    Gambling is not one who seeks the thrill of the uncertain outcome at all costs; basically one who likes the action more than the outcome....we like to refer to them as DEGENERATE GAMBLERS....
     
    #56     Aug 7, 2008
  7. gnome

    gnome

    Probably because they were not concerned with "the probability of winning because odds were in their favor"... and be accordingly.

    But rather "went big because they THOUGHT they had a mortal lock" or HOPED to get rich quickly "because of the count"... and also bet accordingly.
     
    #57     Aug 7, 2008
  8. I'm not sure the pit boss is the crucial guy in the detection. What I notice is how the pit boss changes out dealers; then by the third dealer, that dealer does have "tells' that suggest he is going to be in touch with the pit boss.

    My record is a change frequency of 3 per 45 minutes. Several people left the table and were very angry.

    I don't take playing BJ seriously, say to make money. I know I had to carry an icebucket since I was just casual about sliding piles of chips off the table.

    "Beat the Dealer" explained it all in strategy terms. So I just did the "5's theory" which is a chart (card) with a horizontal line across it. It is bigger than the Morse code chart (card).

    BJ is like market Sentiment or market MODE (Continue or Chnage) both of which are binary as are the odds in BJ because the deck only has two parts to it and a deck is very small.

    A round of cards used a portion of a deck and keeping track above or below the line was a snap. It wasn't gambling per se since the house was screwed from the get go by the game design. The number of players at the table was the biggest advantage you could have.

    Today, they use multiple decks all over (a good redesign of the game) and you have to do the MIT movie thing, I guess. Then it was before the PC, etc. The dark ages.

    Trading can't be compared to gaming since it is like horse racing without horses and card games without cards. Trading doesn't have a probability component as part of the partnership of the trader and the market.

    The market is always right and the trader always obeys all the time. the communication link between the market and TO the trader is where the decisions are transmitted to the trader FROM the market. It all takes place in one time zone called NOW.

    "tells" and "telegraphing" do happen and the trader always obeys and takes profits in the segments dictated FROM the market TO the trader.

    I notice that some people take chances by not "seeing" the market and also by being "smarter" than the market.

    Markets are very reliable just like a deck of cards in BJ. There are oly so many cards so to speak and the number of cards is small compared to the human mind and its memory banks.

    A data set in trading is like a poker hand of seven cards. except for one thing every data set is a winner because the only criteria for winning is singular. You hold for as long as the data sets are completing a trending segment.

    Each hand (data set) FROM the market tells you to hold or that you have completed the hold. The book you use is just like "Beat the Dealer" was for playing BJ. Its called the trading plan.

    Holding or not holding is binary and comes from a data set taken in the Present. NOW. Seven elements of data just like a poker hand of seven cards but the hand is always a winner because the market ALWAYS tells you whether to hold or end the hold.

    There's no game. There's no betting.

    Get the book. Get the data sets. Win at trading all the time.

    If necessary take your trading plan to the repair shop.
     
    #58     Aug 7, 2008
  9. gbos

    gbos

    Nice advantage there on 1/20 odds (back in 1986).
     
    #59     Aug 7, 2008
  10. There was a terrific book written about 20 years ago by Bill Ziemba called "Beat the Racetrack." Ziemba is an academic whose approach to the betting/investing world is similar to Ed Thorp's, i.e., exploit inefficiencies with Kelly betting.

    My takeaway from his book, at least what I remember 20 years later, was that the public likes to overbet long shots to win. This means there are other horse/position combinations that are underbet. Ziemba showed ways to exploit this mis-betting. This is similar to the options public buying OTM options looking for the big score or futures traders buying the big breakout only to have it fall back into the range or any number of situations daily where traders chase the market up and down looking for a big move.
     
    #60     Aug 7, 2008