Betting on Fed hike tomorrow

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GlobalFinancier, Aug 8, 2006.

  1. you dont' think we already burning?

    The government had printed so much money in the last few years, no wonder we have to raise rate to make the USD attractive to foreigners and keep inflation "low". Want proof? Next time you go to the bank, withdraw $500 in $20 bill, and count how many set of $20 are there.
    #11     Aug 8, 2006

  2. everyone sounds like a broken record:

    all the inflationary indicators - that's WHY the fed started raising rate 24 months ago - to impact what is happening now. if they raise now the hike won't be felt for another 24 months. HIKING NOW DOES NOTHING TO THE ECONOMY TODAY. it's going to take several more quarters to feel the hikes that the fed made 18 months ago. take a macro class.
    #12     Aug 8, 2006
  3. 2:15 pm EST :D
    #13     Aug 8, 2006

  4. Really thats interesting, I see you have not factored the price of rising energy into you analisys.
    #14     Aug 8, 2006
  5. nope - but the fed did - specifically greenspan.

    edit: the fed is more proactive then people give them credit for.
    #15     Aug 8, 2006
  6. This is Greenie After I yelled at him for causing the bubble to Pop in March 2000 with all those crazy rate hikes


    #16     Aug 8, 2006
  7. I want rates to move higher, wise folks want the same as well, they get better returns without the risk.

    Dumb bunnies will be crushed because they live beyond their means and have know savings.
    #17     Aug 8, 2006
  8. Pabst


    Do you think the dot-head who buys a used BMW in Bombay gives a rats ass what the targeted overnight lending rate in the U.S. is...

    In other words, the Fed is impotent in corralling global commodity prices.

    Also, the strength in oil is the equivalent of a few rate hikes. One could correctly surmise that high commodity prices are anti-inflationary in an economy with stagnant wage growth. After all consumers can only spend so much on so many items. We all ready see a slowdown in discretionary leisure spending......
    #18     Aug 8, 2006
  9. Pabst


    At this moment, persistently low rates on the long end of the curve pose larger systematic risks to the economy than higher rates. Forget mortgages ect. Not important. The REAL threat is to under funded pension and retirement funds along with insurers who never dreamt that the 30year would average a mere 5% yield for half a decade.......
    #19     Aug 8, 2006
  10. lundy


    intermediate move will continue to the upside, i wouldnt short this unless its just for an intraday move.

    i only see more bullishness into expiration.
    #20     Aug 8, 2006