Market participants complacency, trend is still up, same bullshit everytime about Fed pausing soon(remember when rates were at 4%?) Anyways, I don't expect to be right, maybe 50% chance, but I'm covering immediately if I'm wrong and will stay short for a large down move if I'm right. This is going to be interesting...
The right thing to do would be to raise rates, all incoming inflation data is flashing warning signals big time. Energy prices are climbing, the dollar is falling. What a mess. Foreign bankers have us by the balls. Dovish statements will send the dollar lower, not good for our foreign bankers. If we weren't so dependent on them the fed could make intelligent decisions but we are in a position of fiscal weakness. Bernake is a pussy, he will let the markets and wallstreet tell him what to do. Right now the market wants a pause, most likely they will get it. I will stand and cheer if they raise rates and talk tough about inflation, thats what need to be done.
Here's a link I use to see whats going on for the week. http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2006/month/08/day/08/daily/index.html
usually the fed knuckleheads come out saying something first in their speeches about policy change,i havent heard much though. maybe mr.b has put a stop to that. i'll just wait and see.safer that way.
All data including this mornings unit labor costs all point to a rapid rise in inflation. If the fed pauses itS purely political, and that is just plan scarry. They have been saying the recent rise in inflationary pressure is transitory from rising energy costs. Gee the last time I looked oil was still rising not falling. These clowns are playing with fire, and are gonna get burned.