Betting on a big move in the SPX in 2 years time

Discussion in 'Options' started by keroppi, May 13, 2020.

  1. ZBZB

    ZBZB

    what software is that?
     
    #21     May 14, 2020
  2. That software is ONE (OptionNET Explorer, https://www.optionnetexplorer.com/). It's essentially a copy-cat of OptionVue for about $50/month. It's not fully broker-integrated or anything like that, but I get a lot of insight from it.
     
    #22     May 14, 2020
    keroppi likes this.
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    Before you put on that trade, look at the bid/ask spread.
     
    #23     May 14, 2020
  4. keroppi

    keroppi

    Thanks for running this.

    I am curious what program did you use.

    @stepandfetchit would it be possible to run and see what results in generates if you expect a bearish scenario of say spx at 1250 in 2 years time? I would sincerely appreciate it


     
    #24     May 16, 2020
  5. Sure: Using similar request, but for lower target. (I wrote the script against market prices) Note: The script as currently written addresses only Risk defined long option and Verticals of 1 to 10 strikes wide. Kindof a "shotgun/rifle" approach to a reasonable trade fit. If one felt very confident of the specific date, other types of trades could provide much higher returns. This method is intentionally non-critical of the precise time! However, note that you must provide what implied volatility will be at that time... For these runs, I assumed it would be about where it is now per the existing vol surface.
    -----------
    CRITERIA Used: Time?=Now->20200515.1315, term =SPX221216, Symbol= SPX, days=850, uChange=-53.0%, ivChange=+0.0%
    Per leg Slippage->0.1 MiniBA spread:50 Commission:1.30 Candidates->5
    Target date = 20220912 is on day# 1 of the week (Mon=1...) Database is "xxxx"
    U= 2728.43, Target U-> 1282.36
    ATM IV= 0.24, Target ATM-IV-> (0.28 -> 0.28):(0.29 -> 0.29)
    Results of evaluation listed below:
    Opra ROR Open Close P0 PT
    SPX221216P2050 304 % 177.40 716.16 177.30 716.26
    SPX221216P2025 304 % 171.45 692.03 171.35 692.13
    SPX221216P2000 303 % 165.55 668.08 165.45 668.18
    SPX221216P2075 303 % 183.55 740.44 183.45 740.54
    SPX221216P2100 303 % 189.75 764.84 189.65 764.94
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 25
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1700 / 1725 226 % SELL 20.62 10.72
    1450 / 1475 199 % SELL 21.17 13.54
    1750 / 1775 191 % SELL 19.82 9.96
    2025 / 2050 188 % SELL 18.37 5.93
    2125 / 2150 188 % SELL 17.87 4.49
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 50
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1100 / 1150 221 % SELL 45.62 35.97
    2025 / 2075 194 % SELL 36.87 11.39
    1925 / 1975 193 % SELL 37.97 14.76
    2000 / 2050 193 % SELL 37.17 12.41
    2175 / 2225 193 % SELL 35.27 6.85
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 75
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2000 / 2075 196 % SELL 55.67 17.88
    2025 / 2100 195 % SELL 55.17 16.48
    2125 / 2200 195 % SELL 53.57 11.82
    2150 / 2225 195 % SELL 53.17 10.69
    2100 / 2175 195 % SELL 53.97 13.05
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 100
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    700 / 800 249 % SELL 94.42 80.53
    900 / 1000 242 % SELL 93.32 77.17
    1000 / 1100 233 % SELL 92.22 74.11
    800 / 900 230 % SELL 93.72 79.28
    1100 / 1200 211 % SELL 90.92 71.78
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 125
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2025 / 2150 197 % SELL 91.47 25.47
    1950 / 2075 197 % SELL 93.57 31.75
    1925 / 2050 197 % SELL 94.27 33.88
    2100 / 2225 196 % SELL 89.47 19.68
    2000 / 2125 196 % SELL 92.17 27.69
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 150
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1000 / 1150 237 % SELL 138.07 109.86
    1100 / 1250 209 % SELL 135.87 106.33
    1925 / 2075 197 % SELL 112.77 39.35
    2000 / 2150 197 % SELL 110.27 31.95
    2025 / 2175 197 % SELL 109.37 29.30
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 175
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2025 / 2200 197 % SELL 127.17 32.80
    2000 / 2175 197 % SELL 128.17 35.79
    1925 / 2100 197 % SELL 131.07 44.43
    2050 / 2225 197 % SELL 126.27 30.23
    1950 / 2125 197 % SELL 130.07 41.56
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 200
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    700 / 900 248 % SELL 188.37 159.59
    900 / 1100 244 % SELL 185.77 151.06
    800 / 1000 244 % SELL 187.27 156.23
    1000 / 1200 227 % SELL 183.37 145.66
    1100 / 1300 204 % SELL 180.27 140.10
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 225
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1925 / 2150 198 % SELL 167.37 53.42
    2000 / 2225 198 % SELL 163.67 42.42
    1950 / 2175 198 % SELL 166.07 49.66
    2025 / 2250 197 % SELL 162.37 38.69
    1975 / 2200 197 % SELL 164.87 46.22
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 250
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    900 / 1150 244 % SELL 231.62 186.80
    1000 / 1250 222 % SELL 228.32 180.22
    1100 / 1350 199 % SELL 224.27 173.08
    1925 / 2175 198 % SELL 185.27 57.26
    1950 / 2200 198 % SELL 183.87 53.16
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 25
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 1850 902 % BUY 2.18 21.80
    1775 / 1800 419 % BUY 4.08 21.16
    1725 / 1750 340 % BUY 4.58 20.12
    1650 / 1675 328 % BUY 4.43 18.94
    1700 / 1725 326 % BUY 4.68 19.91
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 50
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 1875 504 % BUY 7.33 44.26
    1750 / 1800 381 % BUY 8.73 42.01
    1700 / 1750 346 % BUY 9.03 40.26
    1725 / 1775 344 % BUY 9.23 40.97
    1625 / 1675 336 % BUY 8.58 37.43
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 75
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 1900 435 % BUY 12.53 67.02
    1725 / 1800 377 % BUY 13.08 62.36
    1700 / 1775 347 % BUY 13.68 61.11
    1675 / 1750 343 % BUY 13.48 59.63
    1475 / 1550 340 % BUY 10.78 47.40
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 100
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 1925 402 % BUY 17.93 90.03
    1700 / 1800 371 % BUY 17.53 82.50
    1650 / 1750 346 % BUY 17.68 78.79
    1675 / 1775 344 % BUY 18.13 80.48
    1475 / 1575 343 % BUY 14.58 64.59
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 125
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 1950 384 % BUY 23.43 113.37
    1675 / 1800 364 % BUY 21.98 101.87
    1650 / 1775 346 % BUY 22.33 99.64
    1625 / 1750 346 % BUY 21.83 97.29
    1475 / 1600 345 % BUY 18.43 81.91
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 150
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 1975 372 % BUY 29.03 136.91
    1650 / 1800 362 % BUY 26.18 121.03
    1625 / 1775 346 % BUY 26.48 118.13
    1700 / 1850 345 % BUY 28.38 126.24
    1600 / 1750 345 % BUY 25.93 115.33
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 175
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1825 / 2000 363 % BUY 34.73 160.70
    1625 / 1800 360 % BUY 30.33 139.52
    1575 / 1750 346 % BUY 29.78 132.66
    1600 / 1775 345 % BUY 30.58 136.18
    1500 / 1675 345 % BUY 27.48 122.14
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 200
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1600 / 1800 358 % BUY 34.43 157.57
    1825 / 2025 355 % BUY 40.63 184.65
    1550 / 1750 346 % BUY 33.58 149.85
    1575 / 1775 346 % BUY 34.43 153.50
    1475 / 1675 346 % BUY 30.88 137.61
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 225
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1575 / 1800 357 % BUY 38.28 174.89
    1825 / 2050 348 % BUY 46.58 208.78
    1525 / 1750 347 % BUY 37.23 166.25
    1550 / 1775 347 % BUY 38.23 170.69
    1625 / 1850 345 % BUY 41.18 183.27
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 250
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    1550 / 1800 357 % BUY 42.08 192.08
    1500 / 1750 347 % BUY 40.73 182.00
    1525 / 1775 347 % BUY 41.88 187.09
    1475 / 1725 345 % BUY 39.78 177.12
    1600 / 1850 345 % BUY 45.28 201.31

    Summary in ROR order for each type
    ROR Type Description Order type
    902 % Put Spread 25 1825 / 1850 Buy to Open
    504 % Put Spread 50 1825 / 1875 Buy to Open
    435 % Put Spread 75 1825 / 1900 Buy to Open
    402 % Put Spread 100 1825 / 1925 Buy to Open
    384 % Put Spread 125 1825 / 1950 Buy to Open
    372 % Put Spread 150 1825 / 1975 Buy to Open
    363 % Put Spread 175 1825 / 2000 Buy to Open
    358 % Put Spread 200 1600 / 1800 Buy to Open
    357 % Put Spread 225 1575 / 1800 Buy to Open
    357 % Put Spread 250 1550 / 1800 Buy to Open
    304 % Long PUT SPX221216P2050 Buy to Open
    249 % Call Spread 100 700 / 800 Sell to Open
    248 % Call Spread 200 700 / 900 Sell to Open
    244 % Call Spread 250 900 / 1150 Sell to Open
    237 % Call Spread 150 1000 / 1150 Sell to Open
    226 % Call Spread 25 1700 / 1725 Sell to Open
    221 % Call Spread 50 1100 / 1150 Sell to Open
    198 % Call Spread 225 1925 / 2150 Sell to Open
    197 % Call Spread 175 2025 / 2200 Sell to Open
    197 % Call Spread 125 2025 / 2150 Sell to Open
    196 % Call Spread 75 2000 / 2075 Sell to Open
    -----------------------------
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2020
    #25     May 16, 2020
    TooEffingOld and ironchef like this.
  6. keroppi

    keroppi

    Thanks again @stepandfetchit

    May I ask if you can run more scenario? Say what option strategies would generate the best returns if you expected 2650 any time by September?

    Also can you get a summary of the option strategies that you get by using OptionNetExplorer or OptionVue? I am looking to trial one of these platforms as I am not sure how to write a script myself.


     
    #26     May 17, 2020
  7. I do not have ONE or OV (I had them in the past), but they lacked in user flexibility for my needs.
    This is a current view of vertical and long option candidates for 125 days from now if SPX is down 6.3% (near 2650 on Sep 17th, 2020) and the IV relatively unchanged.
    ------------------


    CRITERIA Used: Time?=Now->20200515.1315, term =SPX201016, Symbol= SPX, days=125, uChange=-6.3%, ivChange=+0.0%
    Per leg Slippage->0.1 MiniBA spread:20 Commission:1.30 Candidates->5
    Target date = 20200917 is on day# 4 of the week (Mon=1...) Database is "xxxxx"
    U= 2829.54, Target U-> 2651.28
    ATM IV= 0.29, Target ATM-IV-> (0.28 -> 0.28):(0.27 -> 0.27)
    Results of evaluation listed below:
    Opra ROR Open Close P0 PT
    SPX201016P3225 32 % 421.55 556.92 421.45 557.02
    SPX201016P3200 32 % 402.90 531.93 402.80 532.03
    SPX201016P3250 32 % 440.90 581.92 440.80 582.02
    SPX201016P3275 32 % 460.95 606.91 460.85 607.01
    SPX201016P3175 32 % 385.40 506.93 385.30 507.03
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 25
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2950 / 2975 86 % SELL 13.12 2.87
    2975 / 3000 85 % SELL 12.57 1.96
    3000 / 3025 81 % SELL 11.87 1.26
    2925 / 2950 81 % SELL 13.37 3.99
    2900 / 2925 80 % SELL 13.97 5.18
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 50
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2950 / 3000 89 % SELL 25.92 4.60
    2925 / 2975 86 % SELL 26.72 6.64
    2975 / 3025 86 % SELL 24.67 2.99
    2900 / 2950 83 % SELL 27.57 8.95
    2875 / 2925 82 % SELL 28.82 11.50
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 75
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2925 / 3000 88 % SELL 39.52 8.37
    2950 / 3025 88 % SELL 38.02 5.64
    2900 / 2975 86 % SELL 40.92 11.59
    2975 / 3050 84 % SELL 36.17 3.56
    2875 / 2950 83 % SELL 42.42 15.26
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 100
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2900 / 3000 87 % SELL 53.72 13.32
    2925 / 3025 87 % SELL 51.62 9.40
    2950 / 3050 86 % SELL 49.52 6.21
    2875 / 2975 86 % SELL 55.77 17.91
    2850 / 2950 82 % SELL 57.52 22.77
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 125
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2900 / 3025 87 % SELL 65.82 14.36
    2875 / 3000 87 % SELL 68.57 19.64
    2925 / 3050 86 % SELL 63.12 9.97
    2850 / 2975 84 % SELL 70.87 25.42
    2950 / 3075 83 % SELL 60.42 6.51
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 150
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2875 / 3025 87 % SELL 80.67 20.67
    2900 / 3050 86 % SELL 77.32 14.93
    2850 / 3000 85 % SELL 83.67 27.15
    2925 / 3075 84 % SELL 74.02 10.28
    2825 / 2975 82 % SELL 86.42 34.25
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 175
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2875 / 3050 86 % SELL 92.17 21.24
    2850 / 3025 85 % SELL 95.77 28.18
    2900 / 3075 84 % SELL 88.22 15.23
    2825 / 3000 83 % SELL 99.22 35.98
    2925 / 3100 81 % SELL 84.27 10.44
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 200
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2850 / 3050 85 % SELL 107.27 28.75
    2875 / 3075 84 % SELL 103.07 21.55
    2825 / 3025 84 % SELL 111.32 37.02
    2900 / 3100 82 % SELL 98.47 15.39
    2800 / 3000 81 % SELL 115.12 46.03
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 225
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2850 / 3075 83 % SELL 118.17 29.06
    2825 / 3050 83 % SELL 122.82 37.59
    2875 / 3100 82 % SELL 113.32 21.71
    2800 / 3025 82 % SELL 127.22 47.06
    2775 / 3000 79 % SELL 131.37 57.04
    CALL Vertical Spread Width 250
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2825 / 3075 82 % SELL 133.72 37.89
    2800 / 3050 82 % SELL 138.72 47.63
    2850 / 3100 82 % SELL 128.42 29.22
    2775 / 3025 80 % SELL 143.47 58.07
    2875 / 3125 80 % SELL 122.92 21.79
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 25
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2950 / 2975 99 % BUY 11.83 23.59
    2975 / 3000 98 % BUY 12.33 24.39
    2925 / 2950 96 % BUY 11.48 22.54
    2900 / 2925 92 % BUY 11.08 21.25
    3000 / 3025 90 % BUY 13.03 24.76
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 50
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2950 / 3000 101 % BUY 23.93 48.21
    2925 / 2975 101 % BUY 23.08 46.36
    2900 / 2950 97 % BUY 22.33 44.02
    2975 / 3025 97 % BUY 25.13 49.38
    2875 / 2925 93 % BUY 21.48 41.43
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 75
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2925 / 3000 102 % BUY 35.18 70.98
    2900 / 2975 100 % BUY 33.93 67.84
    2950 / 3025 99 % BUY 36.73 73.19
    2875 / 2950 96 % BUY 32.73 64.20
    2975 / 3050 93 % BUY 38.48 74.37
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 100
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2900 / 3000 101 % BUY 46.03 92.46
    2925 / 3025 100 % BUY 47.98 95.96
    2875 / 2975 99 % BUY 44.33 88.02
    2950 / 3050 96 % BUY 50.08 98.19
    2850 / 2950 95 % BUY 42.53 83.04
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 125
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2900 / 3025 100 % BUY 58.83 117.44
    2875 / 3000 100 % BUY 56.43 112.64
    2850 / 2975 97 % BUY 54.13 106.85
    2925 / 3050 97 % BUY 61.33 120.96
    2825 / 2950 93 % BUY 51.98 100.53
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 150
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2875 / 3025 99 % BUY 69.23 137.62
    2850 / 3000 99 % BUY 66.23 131.47
    2900 / 3050 97 % BUY 72.18 142.44
    2825 / 2975 96 % BUY 63.58 124.35
    2925 / 3075 94 % BUY 75.38 145.95
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 175
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2850 / 3025 98 % BUY 79.03 156.46
    2875 / 3050 97 % BUY 82.58 162.62
    2825 / 3000 97 % BUY 75.68 148.97
    2900 / 3075 94 % BUY 86.23 167.43
    2800 / 2975 94 % BUY 72.63 140.58
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 200
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2825 / 3025 97 % BUY 88.48 173.95
    2850 / 3050 96 % BUY 92.38 181.45
    2800 / 3000 95 % BUY 84.73 165.20
    2875 / 3075 94 % BUY 96.63 187.61
    2775 / 2975 92 % BUY 81.18 155.59
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 225
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2825 / 3050 95 % BUY 101.83 198.95
    2800 / 3025 95 % BUY 97.53 190.19
    2850 / 3075 94 % BUY 106.43 206.45
    2775 / 3000 93 % BUY 93.28 180.21
    2875 / 3100 91 % BUY 111.18 212.61
    PUT Vertical Spread Width 250
    Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
    2800 / 3050 94 % BUY 110.88 215.18
    2775 / 3025 93 % BUY 106.08 205.19
    2825 / 3075 93 % BUY 115.88 223.95
    2850 / 3100 91 % BUY 120.98 231.44
    2750 / 3000 91 % BUY 101.78 194.09

    Summary in ROR order for each type
    ROR Type Description Order type
    102 % Put Spread 75 2925 / 3000 Buy to Open
    101 % Put Spread 50 2950 / 3000 Buy to Open
    101 % Put Spread 100 2900 / 3000 Buy to Open
    100 % Put Spread 125 2900 / 3025 Buy to Open
    99 % Put Spread 25 2950 / 2975 Buy to Open
    99 % Put Spread 150 2875 / 3025 Buy to Open
    98 % Put Spread 175 2850 / 3025 Buy to Open
    97 % Put Spread 200 2825 / 3025 Buy to Open
    95 % Put Spread 225 2825 / 3050 Buy to Open
    94 % Put Spread 250 2800 / 3050 Buy to Open
    89 % Call Spread 50 2950 / 3000 Sell to Open
    88 % Call Spread 75 2925 / 3000 Sell to Open
    87 % Call Spread 100 2900 / 3000 Sell to Open
    87 % Call Spread 125 2900 / 3025 Sell to Open
    87 % Call Spread 150 2875 / 3025 Sell to Open
    86 % Call Spread 25 2950 / 2975 Sell to Open
    86 % Call Spread 175 2875 / 3050 Sell to Open
    85 % Call Spread 200 2850 / 3050 Sell to Open
    83 % Call Spread 225 2850 / 3075 Sell to Open
    82 % Call Spread 250 2825 / 3075 Sell to Open
    32 % Long PUT SPX201016P3225 Buy to Open
     
    #27     May 17, 2020
    TooEffingOld and keroppi like this.
  8. FYI: If you would like to see others...
    Below is the syntax I need, so if you have other request, consider providing the syntax, then I can just copy/paste and run it.

    Parameters are required (min 5 parameters)
    <timestamp> : format 'YYYYMMDD.hhmm' or n for now
    An opra or Expiry to identify the underlying and option chain you wish to enter trade in
    # calendar days from now for the evaluation (may be real, but should terminate on a trading day if you desire to verify the results)
    change in underlying price, ie -0.05 if price expected to fall 5% in specified time!
    change in ATM IV expected in the specified time based on present volatility surface! Note if vol surface changes considerably during trade, results may loose value
    Note: IV on Target date uses reference IV inferred by present volatility surface, which can be nudged by user input in percentage change.
    optional parameters
    -v N For verbose set to numerical value N
    -slippage n To specify amount of slippage on each contract (open as well as close)
    -BA n To specify Minimum ASK-BID spread to consider as a candidate
    -candidates n To specify maximum number of candidates per type to list if verbose is on
    -MinBid n To specify minimum value of BID to consider
    Example: GetTrade.pl n .SPXW200501C2495 7 -0.03 0
    --
    Note: the data is pulled from my SQL database, so "now" really means last (most recent) sample.
    BTW: This is syntax used for above run:
    GetTrade.pl n .SPX201016C1475 125 -.063 0 -BA 20 -v 1
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2020
    #28     May 17, 2020
    keroppi and TooEffingOld like this.
  9. @keroppi, I hope you appreciate the help you're getting from @stepandfetchit !! And No, software like ONE, OV, and your broker's software doesn't have this kind of custom options screen.
     
    #29     May 17, 2020
  10. keroppi

    keroppi

    @stepandfetchit

    Could you do one more run for me for a SPX price target of 1350 by 16 December 2022?

    I tried your syntax but can't understand it. Sorry. I know it starts with GetTrade.pl n .SPX221216 but I am having difficulty understanding the remainder of it.

    I bought a trial version of OptionVue and it is crap. I tried to run option strategies but keep getting an error 'Projecting beyond the expiration of the farthest options' even after putting in 2022. I have tried to contact their support already

    Thank you so much. I am sincerely grateful!
     
    #30     May 26, 2020