Better to Predict...or React?

imho
you can't predict, you must not predict.
Everytime you do it, you will be the laughing stock of the Market.
The Market is a lady.
She hates your predictions.

But She loves when you anticipate her dancing steps (the famous "price action").
She sees that you know the etiquette.
She will reward you for the courtesy.

 

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Right, & thats why i seldom predict;
BOX turtles, polar bears, bulls,& hawks win. Prediction pigs lose.

So let me rephrase one of the few ''predictions'' made here;
high probability you better study more than one sector ,
DAC8555 /bear.
One of these years/decades,TOL may UPTREND again.

Its easy to confuse a high probability with infallibility or predictions;
better & best not to do that.

 

Better to Predict...or React?
Confusion without end in sight.

Nobody predicts, nobody reacts;
Everybody predicts, everybody reacts.

This discussion will go on endlessly.
Real traders ONLY ACT.
Why do they act as they do? Hard to say.
Few will not base their actions on observation of past history. Few will engage in action without the hope of making a profit.

If you believe in any reasonable approach at all, it is difficult to deny that many REACT to the observation of past market events and DECIDE on action in the HOPE to turn a profit. If you don't want to call this process of reasoned deduction PREDICTING, call it FORESEEING or EXPECTING or weighing in of probabilities or anything similar. It all comes to the same: pedantic semantics popular with losers.

 

Agree.

 

if you predict you had better be able to react when you are wrong. your ability to predict is suspect because your prediction that the homebuilders will be $5 in 2 years is wrong.

 

"I let the market tell me what I should be doing. Keep in mind, it's always right."
is nonsense

 

This is my official quote and I want rights to it...

<B>PREPARE TO REACT</B>

 

No wonder you've been unsuccessful. You're lucky you have your shirt left.

1. As a new trader, you should not short any equities.
2. A bad strategy to short anything going into Nov-Dec, any year.
3. Overall, you should be buying weakness, not shorting it.

 

agreed! I think alot of the time, people use this phrase as an excuse to poor decisions/performance. Don't get this confused with "going against the market" because that is usually going to get you nothing but headaches. The market can often be wrong, that would be the whole reason for corrections!

 

I will agree with that... I'm sure everyone has an opinion on this, and I'm sure most of them differ. Apples and oranges...