i will say it, at this moment, i am a bear, a newbie....and i am in cash (due to being stopped out). My current strategy is to try to find weak stocks and short them. the last 3 weeks have been VERY unsuccessful. I continue to looks for shorts mainly the the homebuilding sector....But i think my doomsday predections are really hampering my success. The last few weeks homebuilders have rallied, and i have not participated even though i watch them like a hawk. today for instance i SHOULD have made about $3000 as i saw TOL skyrocket on the FED news...but i am a bear on TOL, i want it to go down. the question is this: do you try to predict what will happen (like i predict hombulders around $5 in 2 years) or...do you go with the flow even if it is against your general feeling on things..like homebulders rallying today?