Based upon the market's move this year, it seems that a relatively safe strategy would have been to enter into slightly otm put & call backspreads. Of course, the tradeoff is that the futures contract is at a greater risk if the market remains range bound. Imagine where you'd be if did this during the springtime, three month out at a time. Of course, entering the positions at s/r points or before earnings or big news events would probably benefit the timing criteria. Looking forward, where will the market go in the next 2 - 4 quarters...?? Walt
Let's suppose the market tops out at 1200 sometime this quarter. Then let's assume that it corrects 10% from 1200 and it takes two quarters to do so (finishes the third quarter at 1080). Now we have no idea what this correction will look like. Then suppose during the fourth quarter the market surpasses 1200. Now pick your optimal option trades using the SPX or ES as your underlying. Now, I am no fortuneteller, but I can tell you there are many option strategies that will work. You need to decide which of the strategies you want to go with based on the conditions during this time period, then manage your positions.
You cannot determine 'safe' by past performance. Risk must be estimated before the trade is placed. Mark