Better Lives for Mexicans Cut Allure of Going North

Better Lives for Mexicans Cut Allure of Going North

By DAMIEN CAVE
Published: July 6, 2011

AGUA NEGRA, Mexico — The extraordinary Mexican migration that delivered millions of illegal immigrants to the United States over the past 30 years has sputtered to a trickle, and research points to a surprising cause: unheralded changes in Mexico that have made staying home more attractive.

A growing body of evidence suggests that a mix of developments — expanding economic and educational opportunities, rising border crime and shrinking families — are suppressing illegal traffic as much as economic slowdowns or immigrant crackdowns in the United States.

Here in the red-earth highlands of Jalisco, one of Mexico’s top three states for emigration over the past century, a new dynamic has emerged. For a typical rural family like the Orozcos, heading to El Norte without papers is no longer an inevitable rite of passage. Instead, their homes are filling up with returning relatives; older brothers who once crossed illegally are awaiting visas; and the youngest Orozcos are staying put.

“I’m not going to go to the States because I’m more concerned with my studies,” said Angel Orozco, 18. Indeed, at the new technological institute where he is earning a degree in industrial engineering, all the students in a recent class said they were better educated than their parents — and that they planned to stay in Mexico rather than go to the United States.

Douglas S. Massey, co-director of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton, an extensive, long-term survey in Mexican emigration hubs, said his research showed that interest in heading to the United States for the first time had fallen to its lowest level since at least the 1950s. “No one wants to hear it, but the flow has already stopped,” Mr. Massey said, referring to illegal traffic. “For the first time in 60 years, the net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative.”

The decline in illegal immigration, from a country responsible for roughly 6 of every 10 illegal immigrants in the United States, is stark. The Mexican census recently discovered four million more people in Mexico than had been projected, which officials attributed to a sharp decline in emigration.

American census figures analyzed by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center also show that the illegal Mexican population in the United States has shrunk and that fewer than 100,000 illegal border-crossers and visa-violators from Mexico settled in the United States in 2010, down from about 525,000 annually from 2000 to 2004. Although some advocates for more limited immigration argue that the Pew studies offer estimates that do not include short-term migrants, most experts agree that far fewer illegal immigrants have been arriving in recent years.

The question is why. Experts and American politicians from both parties have generally looked inward, arguing about the success or failure of the buildup of border enforcement and tougher laws limiting illegal immigrants’ rights — like those recently passed in Alabama and Arizona. Deportations have reached record highs as total border apprehensions and apprehensions of Mexicans have fallen by more than 70 percent since 2000.

But Mexican immigration has always been defined by both the push (from Mexico) and the pull (of the United States). The decision to leave home involves a comparison, a wrenching cost-benefit analysis, and just as a Mexican baby boom and economic crises kicked off the emigration waves in the 1980s and ’90s, research now shows that the easing of demographic and economic pressures is helping keep departures in check.

In simple terms, Mexican families are smaller than they had once been. The pool of likely migrants is shrinking. Despite the dominance of the Roman Catholic Church in Mexico, birth control efforts have pushed down the fertility rate to about 2 children per woman from 6.8 in 1970, according to government figures. So while Mexico added about one million new potential job seekers annually in the 1990s, since 2007 that figure has fallen to an average of 800,000, according to government birth records. By 2030, it is expected to drop to 300,000.

Even in larger families like the Orozcos’ — Angel is the 9th of 10 children — the migration calculation has changed. Crossing “mojado,” wet or illegally, has become more expensive and more dangerous, particularly with drug cartels dominating the border. At the same time, educational and employment opportunities have greatly expanded in Mexico. Per capita gross domestic product and family income have each jumped more than 45 percent since 2000, according to one prominent economist, Roberto Newell. Despite all the depictions of Mexico as “nearly a failed state,” he argued, “the conventional wisdom is wrong.”

A significant expansion of legal immigration — aided by American consular officials — is also under way. Congress may be debating immigration reform, but in Mexico, visas without a Congressionally mandated cap on how many people can enter have increased from 2006 to 2010, compared with the previous five years.

State Department figures show that Mexicans who have become American citizens have legally brought in 64 percent more immediate relatives, 220,500 from 2006 through 2010, compared with the figures for the previous five years. Tourist visas are also being granted at higher rates of around 89 percent, up from 67 percent, while American farmers have legally hired 75 percent more temporary workers since 2006.

Edward McKeon, the top American official for consular affairs in Mexico, said he had focused on making legal passage to the United States easier in an effort to prevent people from giving up and going illegally. He has even helped those who were previously illegal overcome bans on entering the United States.

“If people are trying to do the right thing,” Mr. McKeon said, “we need to send the signal that we’ll reward them...........



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/07/06/world/americas/immigration.html?src=me&ref=general

 

Looking in from afar

1. The USA should allow immigration from an economic point of view. The immigrants keep wages low and increase property prices. All those empty homes could be filled and the property market could recover.

2. The drug war in Mexico is lost. The sooner the Mexican authorities can realize that the better. Therefore legalize drugs south of the border and let a Govt agency sell them cheaper than the cartels. Most of the junkies are never going to contribute much to anyone's society anyway. Those that can resist using illegal drugs obviously have the self discipline to succeed.

 

Instead of all that drug's money going to criminals the Mexican Govt could use it to rehab some junkies and other good causes like free contraceptive pills - regardless of what that dope in the Vatican says !!

The tourist industry would boom too

 

The USA should allow immigration from an economic point of view. The immigrants keep wages low and increase property prices.

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ur a fool

 

If you can't see that then let's hope the politicians are not as

blinkered in their ignorance as you

immigrants are prepared to work for very low wages AND they have to have somewhere to live QED

It is called supply and demand

 

One of my subs, who is originally from Mexico has a son going to college in Mexico. His son is an American citizen and had scholarship offers in Texas but chose Mexico and he is planning on working in Mexico after he graduates. My subs oldest daughter is a nurse working here in Texas. I know several legal Mexican workers who would rather work in Mexico if the employment opportunities were available there.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/despite-violence-fewer-mexicans-crossing-u-145708552.html

 

Lie from a liberal rag to get you to sleep some more on it. They are flooding in. Free baby care and citizenship. They are looting what's left. And the government wants it to happen you constitutional bastard. Soon your voice is drowned in a sea of violence whitey. You have caused all the problems for mexicans, got it? Good.

 

The Western European countries like Germany, France, and England have conceded that immigration the past twenty years has backfired massively for them in terms of entitlement spending and for the immigre's refusals to integrate into host country's mainstream society.

The illegal Mexican immigrants do not have the educational background to provide anything other than manual labor. And if you can collect free housing, food stamps and food vouchers, education, medical care, and a bit of spending money (the states give out Visa debit cards), guess what... you will not take that $10 per hour job. Oh, and if you become a citizen, you can bring your immediate family over as well. And they get the entitlements also.

 

Think of it this way - under my proposals the USA is swopping it's useless junkies for some that are willing to work at wages no northener would consider.

Well if that isn't a dream deal ( the junkies won't contribute much and cost a lot ) then consider this - the USA is a nation of immigrants. When did your ancestors get there ? Did the Native Americans try and pull up the drawbridge - you bet they did but got squashed in the rush. That guy down the road in his tepee could be your future too if you stand in the way. Talk about mean !!

Yo rednecks prolly need a lie-down now