So, I just did a short analysis of my trades in January-February to date. Good lessons in total I think. I need to stand down on 1 particular setup that has been popping up a lot since the beginning of the year. I have some rules, but until early January I wasn't even trying to trade them...then I thought I'd figured out the pattern...I still think I'm onto something, but it's definitely less refined than for other days, yet that's the day type that has been hurting me the most over the last 2 months - responsible for most of my losses. There was also a day type that came up Dec. 30 (wasn't trading between Christmas and new years) that has come up 3 times since, and those are the only ones of their type. I think I have a pattern, but it's brand new so need to do half size or skip. A few days that I knew were lower odds thrown into the mix and a few days that fit into their statistical off days, and that's pretty ugly to look at... But the take away I think is stop trading days you know are lower odds (duh), focus on the bread and butter. My issue is that if bread and butter isn't working (and 2 days didn't), then I just kind of panic about not making money that month. But going for the choppier days obviously isn't helping. There are 2 day types I thought I'd figured out but was skipping after I realized they tended to be unprofitable in October. One I think I have broken the code and have made money on it since the new year; the other, well, it's the one that's responsible for most of my losses so it's time to put that one on ice - track it, but stop. I don't have to trade every day to make money. My P/L demonstrates I'm better off skipping certain days!!
%% Chasing can work well, trading with trend,but i don't chase it much.Chasing counter trend, NOT SO much,remind$ me of the time I changed lanes in TX,LOL with a signal, turn signal. TX trooper pointed out= '' that's illegal!!'' Sorry, sir, i said. So i got that part right, respectful language + putting hand on steering wheel-doing nothing, usually helps.LOL I dont know about DEC 30; but DEC 29 is ''+'' Actually that TX trooper did NOT write me a ticket; but if i do that turn/move, with a signal, it will cost me huge over time............................... I never chase fibo numbers. Beside$ ,they bought SPY from $152+ bottom was$77,+ $67. I know SPY + ES are not the same.SPY pays dividends+ ES has better moves in the leveraged sense, that buying@ $77 may have worked well, once; but a killer whale @ $76,[50% level] if no losses were cut to $67.Don Bright[ Daytrading] Co made money thru slop chop,[ on a daily chart its ''+''as a candle] ; but he had long term money [ Roth ......]+ got dividends. I dont know how many of his top traders made money on slop chop??
%% A fairly reliable radio news network [AFA] said[ end of day]'' DOW was UP 10 days in a row'' I record SPY + other stuff more. BUT that sounded sick+ weak signal; so i checked out DIA. Could be; but IF it is-- they counted opening price,LOL.I study openprice+ always count a down close[CST] to down close , as down day. SPY ,9;50-10;10.CST,FEB27, mini reversal is mostly up.2001 stock traders almanac has 2nd to last FEB day as bearish. More modern versions have a bit bullish[ close] i I count a green candle that opens Up or down, but closes below yesterday's close; i count that as red bear candle/ polar bear candle. While that can be an early warning;its almost always bearish- if the bulls cant even close above yesterdays close in a bull trend UP market LOL.NOT a prediction
I got the stomach bug Sunday night so no trades for me yesterday. Signal is a very mixed one today. Doesn't always mean no good trades, but it means it's not as predictable as some days so I try not to chase or guess. Will have to see where it opens within yesterday's fibs.
Crazy move in the Globex session. Will watch for some exhaustion on the 15-min chart, but want a good entry. And this is technically one of the less predictable days...setting up like post-Brexit...
%% ES + SPY are nicely inside Keltner channels , not that means it can not have a trade-able counter-trend .Some did a tradeable counter-trend, CST in like yesterday, lunchtime+/ .I dont buy real often in a bear market or sell much in a bull uptrend. But many have been selling TGT, since sell in May, 2016 [last year] LOL. IBD calls a ''200 dma , late sell signal'' Funny + good
So my other kid is sick today. No trades, and unfortunately today's rule worked as it should have (contrarian short).
%% I'm just about over my cough-sneeze trend.LOL. IBD Facebook [Investors Business Daily ] Noted"Yellin Talks ,Markets Barely Move........''