%% I guessed you were out by 3:00 CST; usually in by then, if i'm in. By the way, i think i got this off elitetrader; kid's crayon works much better than any highlighter, perfect. It's cheaper, longer lasting + most highlighters bleed thru page or show thru page[ NOT perfect LOL].
So, looking at probably a 2-sided day unless ES opening higher than 58.75, then will be more directional. Could still be directional, but will need to see if ES puts in something like a tiny double top or has a reaction around, 58.75 and just falls...then more likely to be two-sided. Today needs vigilance. Unless we're opening above ~58.75, I'm not supposed to take a trade until after 9:00 central. Will see, looks like a strong hit at the 76% fib.
Looking for retest of 58.75-59.25. 100% of my samples retest or have entry after 9:00 so I am watching it. Today feels a bit different, in which case I'll kick myself, but holding to my rules to keep positive expectancy.
Order active for short; hope get a retest and it holds...it could take a while to fall if it holds. Looks scary, but going off of stats and expectancy long-term following my rules!!!
I'm in short at 59.00. Looks stronger than usual. Said that PM, but until/unless there's something I see that's just wrong with a rule, I have to follow it. Walking away for a bit. This is the part I cannot stand. I have stop and exits in the book so nothing else for me to do. Since it hit the level right at opening, my rule says one-way move today, not 2-ways so there's no reversal play I have in mind. This either holds per rule, or it doesn't.
And it didn't. I see sort of a red flag, but I will just note with my journal and notes on rules. I cannot put so many exceptions in that the rule is mooted. If expectancy changes significantly, then need to consider, but for now, leave as is. So probably done for the day.
%% I like good uptrends[ bull market] or good downtrends[ bear market]. But SPY + any derivative$ related to it, not only did it not feel right, its way to extended by so many measures, for me. So thats why i dont consider it a good buy. Many made millions with huge turtle drawDowns +,low percent profitable + on big trends; but i dont like huge drawDowns if i can help it?? Many traders are very, very analytical; me too . Frankly that looks like a real good short on 30 minute candles, but on the numbers, it looks like+ feels like ''+ candle''. Daily chart as of 12;58+ CST , looks like ''+ ''I call that chop slop ''[ aka range LOL]+ hate it; you may be good enough to take a profit, on that?? But looks likes you may have felt it being a real strong uptrend. I know some-- day traders think a weekly , daily chart$ dont mean much; they may not, for 30 minutes. But over a week or month they have to, intraday.Buy1Sell2 does pretty good position or swing [ES] with more drawDowns than i want.IF YOU can get positive expectancy out of a small red candle that narrow, more power to you. I call that chop slop; some call it a range.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
%% Make sure you keep track of profits/losses, on a sideways slop+ chop, like today.Sometimes i paper trade counter-trends, but i would not even paper trade slop chop as today was + is.LOL. Even more so when you see ES threads on '' brutal vol'' As extended as this uptrend is ,FEB, i almost did not post about a daily candle ''+'', @ noon.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Today my signals are mixed so I am waiting for some directionality at the open. If spikes up, have a small, small fade planned. If hesitates or falls, plan for continuation up, but only after a dip, and possibly quite deep into yesterday's range. One setup would have buying at the open with the fade following, but since I have an ambiguous signal, I'm going to skip that. If it takes off, then that's just the reversal play.
Mistakes chasing/second-guessing. Not disastrous, but not great. Turning off computer and off to exercise or something.