Watching for retest of yesterday's low. I think I was too aggressive on my entry earlier. I mean, obviously I was, but I was second-guessing the idea to place entry below 0% and just had a bit of FOMO and took it even. That was a mistake. And if I'd not, I would not have been stopped out. Stuff to work on...
%% i think it may go lo er FEB; not a prediction. Stock Trader']s Almanac, notes [2001]FEB average gain is .20, much less than average. Modern Trader mag up date on FEB[2016] , not much better on the longs; not a prediction
Thanks. I go long and short depending on my morning signals and never swing or position trade. So, I'm completely agnostic. ;-) Would be something to kind of track though. I think they are pretty good resources.
%% They usually do, in an up trending bull market.I'm agnostic, 2 , on random markets; FEB rally maybe fueled by more shorts covering.LOL ; not a prediction. I also dont comment much intraday LOL
%% I seldom move stops; when my ema moves that is fine. But that is planned ; a simple moving averge maybe too slow
So unless I get a crossover here before 8:30 (central), this is looking like one of the least-reliable, hodge-podge setup days I have. So not sure if I will even trade or if so, will do half size. Would like to get a crossover, but mathematically doesn't look likely unless ES tanks quickly here. Perhaps can get some exhaustion around 98.75, but I want to see candles closing with some selling pressure/tails.
Watching 2300.25-2301.25 for exhaustion. Not a large move off of this since new highs, but perhaps 3R. If it doesn't balance up here for a bit, I will likely skip. If can get some balancing between ~98.75-01.25, may short.
No exhaustion yet so I'm probably standing aside today unless this goes sideways for a long time. I know I look at it and second-guess the short bias a bit, but my data set for days like today is all over the place. Maybe I'll figure out some bit of the puzzle I'm yet to see, but for now days like today are exhaustion days only so doing my best not to second-guess. This is a thin thin slice of possible trading day (less than 5% of all days) so I need to keep perspective. No position is a position when the stats are not with you.
I see a distinction now on the 5-min chart. Never before seen so today's action makes sense. I'm Ok missing something I cannot statistically base a trade off of, but it's a note for the future and helps inform the typical exhaustion play I was looking for.
I am in short 2208.25, stop just above R1. I'm in half size because this is a setup I have fewer stats on. And I'm nervous about being overly bearish with the breakout yesterday. Target 2301.75.