Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Oct 8, 2020.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    At 1.3185, the Looney-U.S. dollar is now comfortably within the bounce zone. It "should" now be only a matter of time (a few hours at the most?) before the rate turns south.
     
    #241     Jun 27, 2023
  2. expiated

    expiated

    I planned to make a comparison when I woke up at 2 AM this morning, but then forgot to actually do it. At any rate, at 7:25 AM, there is a still a four-pip difference between the strike prices, but now, the difference between the payouts is just $11.75...

    Screenshot_7.png
     
    #242     Jun 27, 2023
  3. expiated

    expiated

    At 11:00 AM, the difference halfway into a two-hour contract was $32.25.

    one_hour.png

    The difference at the beginning of a two-hour contract was $23.50.

    two hours.png

    So, when between 7 AM and 11 AM did the "spread" begin increasing? I will have to check hour by hour, hopefully tomorrow.
     
    #243     Jun 27, 2023
  4. expiated

    expiated

    At 8:55 PM PDT the difference between the payouts for a two-hour EURUSD contract that is halfway to expiry is a whopping $40.44. The difference at the beginning of a two-hour contract at 9:00 PM is $27.75.

    I know the difference is only about $12 at 7:30 in the morning, so what I need to find out is just how early this more the 50% decrease takes place.
     
    #244     Jun 28, 2023
  5. expiated

    expiated

    The above statement was not quite true. At 1.3185, the Looney-U.S. dollar was comfortably within the original bounce zone. However, the measures I use are dynamic, and adjust with market conditions, and in evaluating how they have changed, it's clear that USDCAD is pulling all indicators higher, making it an extremely bullish asset (at least for the time being).

    Consequently, I am no longer looking to sell, since the boundary of the sell zone, and the price of the asset, are both climbing at the same rate, and it will be impossible for the pair to ever reach the zone for as long as this continues.

    The above is true from the perspective of one-hour charts. However, on my four-hour charts, USDCAD is still overall bearish, meaning the pair will become a sell candidate after all, but ONLY after the four-hour baseline turns south.
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2023
    #245     Jun 28, 2023
  6. expiated

    expiated

    At 1:30 AM PDT the difference 30 minutes into a two-hour contract has dropped down from 28 bucks (at 9 PM) to $15.75.

    Screenshot_11.png
     
    #246     Jun 28, 2023
  7. expiated

    expiated

    15 minutes into the 5 AM EURUSD two-hour binary option contract, the difference between the middle two payouts is back down to $12, which seems to be about the minimum. So was it there at 4 AM or even earlier? And when does it start going back up to $15 and higher?

    Screenshot_11.png

    It's time to start making a chart, and populating the "spread" at each hour little by little.
     
    #247     Jun 28, 2023
  8. expiated

    expiated

    USDCAD is going to run into a significant resistance level on my four-hour chart at 1.3290. If it blows past this handle all the way up to 1.3400, I will have to begin entertaining the possibility that the pair might be attempting to execute a fully-fledged overall (bullish) reversal.
     
    #248     Jun 28, 2023
  9. expiated

    expiated

    At 7:30 AM the gap = $10.25

    Screenshot_11.png

    At 9:30 AM the gap = $20.75

    Screenshot_13.png

    There is a good chance I will be using these numbers to determine when I will trade binary options (if ever), limiting such activity to those hours when the gap is less than 15 bucks, or something like that.
     
    #249     Jun 28, 2023
  10. expiated

    expiated

    The components of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) are complete. However, how to best interpret them is still being debated. Accordingly, I will be attaching a chart shortly to introduce new terms designed to facilitate the explanations accompanying forecasts associated with these current potential refinements. But first, I want to paste some information related to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) that might help guide me in what I am attempting to do...

    What is a Sliding Window algorithm?
    • The Sliding Window algorithm is a method for finding a subset of elements that satisfy a certain condition in issues.
    • It is a computational technique that aims to reduce the use of nested loops and replace it with a single loop, thereby reducing the time complexity.
    • The problem asks to find the maximum (or minimum) value for a function that calculates the answer repeatedly for a set of ranges from the array
    What are the components of numerical weather prediction?
    • Numerical Weather Prediction's components are the principles of meteorology and numerical weather prediction. These foundational principles include atmospheric motion, observation sources and quality, data assimilation, the need for postprocessing model output, the value of probabilistic predictions, and how to perform validation and verification of the forecast.
    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is a method of weather forecasting that employs a set of equations that describe the flow of fluids, (not to mention, wave functions and computer models as well).

    New Vocabulary
    new_vocabulary.png

    So then basically, we have four categories of candlestick movement:
    1. Leading
    2. Following
    3. Spanning
    4. (and in between) Wandering
    DO NOT TRADE DURING THOSE PERIODS WHEN THE MARKET IS WANDERING.

    So, how do you know when the market is wandering?

    The
    Donchian Channel offers you a possible clue. If it is encased within the price range channel, the market is more than likely wandering. On the other hand, when it is level with or engulfing the price range channel, it is probably a good time to consider being active.
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2023
    #250     Jun 28, 2023