USDCAD went nowhere over the last 24-hours, so I got out of my OANDA position, scalping 8 pips worth of profit. I have subsequently placed a limit order in my NADEX account which, if hit, should return a handful of dollars as opposed to the handful of pennies returned by the OANDA trade... My plan is to replace this trade with an EURGBP Knock-out as soon as I get the trigger signal to enter a long position... A GBPUSD short position constitutes another viable option...
I could exit my OANDA trade right now with $1.65 worth of profit... ...or my NADEX trade with $14.00 worth of profit after fees... In other words, it appears as if the marriage of the final pseudo-swing style version of Numerical Price Prediction and NADEX Knock-outs just might constitute a high percentage winning combination netting returns eight times the size of those I've been generating via OANDA. I'll continue to conduct this experiment in my NADEX demo account and if I find that this type of performance turns out to be the norm, once the Christmas season is over, if all goes as planned, I'll begin the process of transferring most of my discretionary funds from my OANDA account to my NADEX live account and note how much faster I'm able to compound my balance, if at all.
The Nadex 24 Hour History window will not expand so that I can see all of my orders at once, so I had to copy one half at a time and then piece them together so that the total is probably not going to add up correctly given that the figures changed between each screen capture... So, is a bird in the hand better than two in the bush? Should I cash out now while I am ahead, or wait to see where things stand at the end of the New York session? UPDATE: Presently, it appears that the better decision is to let things play out. USDCAD has subsequently hit my extremely modest take-profit target and the TOTAL gain now showing is up to $160, almost three times where it was just a few minutes ago. UPDATE 2: USDCAD continued to climb 20 pips above my take-profit target. It's now eight minutes after my first update and I have just exited all my NADEX positions based on the price of AUDUSD having neared the bottom of the six-hour price range. I believe it is likely that AUDUSD and GBPUSD (or one or more other currency pairs) are likely to pull back before the end of the week, thereby offering opportunities with more potential for additional gains than how AUDUSD and GBPUSD are currently structured. The balance in my demo account has jumped from about $776 a week ago to approximately $1,044; again suggesting that the culminating style of trading Numerical Price Prediction arrived at last week just might allow me to begin trading via the NADEX live platform quite successfully from December 2021 going forward.
Comparing the NADEX USDCAD Daily Call Spreads to the USDCAD Weekly Knock-outs: Tuesday's Call Spreads: A Potential reward and potential risk are both around $250. B Potential reward is approximately $20 and potential risk is approximately $230. C Potential reward and potential risk are both around $125. D Potential reward is around $230 and potential risk is around $20. Weekly Knock-outs E Potential reward is around $20 and potential risk is around $80. F Potential reward is around $40 and potential risk is around $60. G Potential reward is around $60 and potential risk is around $40. H Potential reward is around $80 and potential risk is around $20. So then, if I were to Sell Contract B and Buy Contract H, and the rate were to climb over the next 18 hours, I could lose as much as $20 to $30 from the Spread while at the same time making as much as $1 (hopefully) to $80 from the Knock-out. On the other hand, if I were to Sell Contract B and Buy Contract H, and the rate were to fall over the next 18 hours, I could lose as much as $20 to $30 from the Knockout while at the same time making as much as $1 (hopefully) to $230 from the Spread. Go ahead and try this out to see whether you've made some kind of mistake and to evaluate what actually happens...
Yikes! I placed a limit order to exit a Call Spread and the platform executed the trade without ever registering it in the 24-hours Orders and Positions record. I had to refresh my browser to make the platform acknowledge that I had made the transactions, and this was in my LIVE account—not my demo account. THAT'S not good!
It is a sign that it is time to put the big-boy pants on, and go live. Enough with the sim. I stayed in sim too long when I started out. It hurt me. Don't make the same mistake.
Last week I formed the opinion that the best way to take advantage of looking at the Forex market from a position trader’s perspective when trading using the NADEX platform is to purchase Call Spreads set to expire as close to 24 hours as possible. I find this to be preferable over weekly Knock Outs because with Call Spreads, one cannot be stopped out of his or her positions—yet there is no danger of suffering an unlimited amount of loss, as there is when trading a traditional Forex brokerage account without stops. In evaluating last week’s most profitable trades, the results once again confirmed that the gist of day-to-day price flow is best represented by the 48-hour baseline and not the 24-hour baseline, as one might reasonably expect, given that this latter measure regularly evidences less significant price fluctuations that are often temporary in nature and totally unrelated to where the rate is ultimately headed. Similarly, within a broader context, the one-week baseline is too fast a measure to convey the general direction in which price is headed if operating out of a buy-and-hold framework, where the lowest time frame that appears to be trustworthy in this role is the two-week baseline. Accordingly, what I will be looking for next week are NADEX Call Spread trade opportunities where the faster/lower moving averages are reversing course to transition from advancing against similarly aligned two-day and two-week baselines to flowing along in the same direction with them. At this time, the only pair that looks close to offering such a setup is GBBJPY. Its two-day baseline turned north four days ago, the two-week trend has been bullish ever since October 11, 2021, and price is currently located near the base of the 24-hour price range, which is neutral at the moment. The time to buy will be if and when the two-, six- (and 16-) hour baselines are all sloping upward, which is not yet the case.