EURUSD has spent the last four hours coming out of a pullback in the six-hour trend, so I've purchased these two call option contracts based on the belief that the probability the rate will be 20 pips lower than where it is presently in six-and-a-half hours is not very high. (The two-hour baseline just turned bullish during the previous hour.)
You're up by almost 40 pips, so unless something goes drastically wrong in the next 20 minutes, these two contracts should totally recoup your loss from yesterday and add a little bit of profit on top...
Tuesday / June 23, 2021 / 8:00 AM PST This is interesting... The six-hour trend is still bullish, but the two-hour trend just turned bearish. However, the 110.60 strike price is without a doubt in the lower region of the two-hour price range, with the rate having just bounced of the 60-minute temporal support level and the 30-minute baseline having just turned bullish. If the two-hour trend were bullish as well, there would have been no hesitation about purchasing this four-hour binary option call contract, but given this one negative, it's not clear where things might stand in four hours.
If these kinds of results turn out to be the norm with the ICT version of NPP, I'm going to have to switch from buying in-the-money contracts to out-of-the-money contracts. The rate will have to fall more than 30 pips in the next forty minutes for this contract to be out-of-the-money at expiry.
Coming up with a profitable approach to trading Nadex was a great way to force myself to optimize the statistical viability of whatever methodology I ultimately opted to employ. However, the platform's configuration in terms of strike prices and risk-to-reward ratios remains, in my personal opinion, stupid. So, now that I have settled into a daily routine for trading the Irreducible Complexity Trading version of Numerical Price Prediction, I will NOT be switching to my Nadex live account (though I do still plan to use it to trade via Binary.com if I happen to someday move to Uruguay). Indeed, I can make just as much money with much less risk by trading multiple pairs in my OANDA account, and am likely to begin compounding those returns very quickly if I actually do increase my average trade size to 0.03 lots by the middle of next month, and hopefully graduate to trading entire/complete/whole Lots by the end of this year. So, I will not be surprised if I stop posing any new entries in this thread for awhile.
Wednesday / July 14, 2021 / 6:10 PM PST On June 23rd, my plan was NOT to resume trading via my Nadex live account due to what I view as a ridiculous structure in terms of strike prices and risk-to-reward ratios. However, during the first week of July, a new level of clarity emerged regarding how to implement Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) for maximum effect which seemed to work so well that I simply could not resist the temptation to test it out with respect to the Nadex Exchange platform. So, on July 7th I deposited $100 and began purchasing Nadex Forex derivative binary option contracts based on a possibly enhanced understanding of how to best employ the NPP system... The account is now just $10.50 shy of doubling the initial $100 deposit to $200. So at this point, I'm hoping I can continue to build on this positive start, in which case, I will make much quicker progress in compounding my returns then I am currently making via my "traditional" OANDA account. If this actually happens, then if at some point I actually DO move to Uruguay, I can then use the exact same protocol via my Deriv.com account to realize exponential profits even faster!.
I did NOT continue to build on my positive start. So, I am now exploring an approach based on the 2-hour price range. Ideally, I would prefer for AUDJPY's rate to be at approximately 85.50 for this trade. The 85.40 Put Contract is acceptable, but it is cutting things way too close—the absolute minimum price, which I can just barely justify. (The purchase of two positions was an accident.)
Had I not accidentally purchased two 85.40 put contracts instead of one, the five 85.60 contracts I bought when the rate continued climbing would have been enough to cover my loss AND provide me with a little bit of profit. This outcome confirms the prudence of passing on trade opportunities where price has merely reached a minimum, barely justifiable level, and waiting for those times when it goes on to levels where the statistical odds are deemed more favorable...
I think the trick is going to be to trade with the general six-hour intraday price flow as the 34-minute trend reverses direction to rejoin this measure. Unfortunately, that setup is not available right now. The only thing that came close was USDCAD, where the 34-minute trend is reversing north to realign itself with the bullish 24-, 16- and 8-hour baselines. (The 6-hour baseline is currently bearish.) I'll just have to wait to see if this will be enough upward pressure to prevent the rate from coming back down to the 1.2360 level within the next four hours.