Given the above loss, the only option I had was to purchase a bona fide Nadex Strategy out-of-the-money (by 40 pips) USDJPY binary option put contract with about a 7:1 reward-to-risk ratio... With eleven hours left to go, the contract is only 7.4 pips away from the strike price. But, seeing as how the Forex market often dies around this hour (9:30 AM PST) and there being no guaranty price will be under 108.00 at 8:00 PM PST, I'm going to go ahead and pocket the available funds right here. That will give me enough capital to wait to trade another bona fide Nadex Strategy out-of-the-money setup, perhaps next time by only 20 pips, to try to bring my Nadex balance back up to $100, and then ONLY trade bona fide setup opportunities exclusively going forward.
Had I stayed in this trade (see below) and if USDJPY remains below 108.00 for the next 45 minutes, I would have received a payout of $88 and seen my account balance return to $100. Nonetheless, a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, so I have no regrets, given the circumstances at the time...
The price of USD/CAD was so high, relatively speaking, that it began to pull my baselines north, thereby switching the pair from bearish to bullish. I therefore exited the position hours before expiry, pocketing the available gains while I had the chance...
FINAL DECISION What am I to do here? For six hours this out-of-the money binary option call contract languished at the edge of, or significantly below, my entry level. So, should I pocket what has suddenly become available this hour while I have the chance? (Again, a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush!) This is a significant spike. It suggest that the pair has initiated a genuine turn north. Moreover, the rate is now 15 pips above the strike price. This is a mildly safe cushion/interval. So, I should probably wait another 12 hours for expiry, because odds are that the pair will climb even higher—right? But hold on! Last night I decided that what I'm going to be doing going forward—the way that I'm going to use this "final" approach to implementing Numerical Price Prediction for maximum effect as applied to Nadex's trading platform—is to ONLY purchase out-of-the-money contracts under the kind of conditions described in Post #86, with no less than a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio, and then lock in my gains AS SOON AS $10 to $30 or more becomes available. Given the amount that's available now, this is what I need to do, regardless of how likely it might seem that waiting twelve hours until expiry will almost assuredly result in my receiving the full payout. In this way, I should be able to grow an initial $100 balance by 10% to 30% everyday, resulting in an exponential explosion of profits by the end of the year. That will get me back to only $65.25 rather than $100 at the close of this session, yet this is how I need to operate if I wish to build on what I have consistently while still protecting my capital. If I do, I will see more significant daily returns soon enough.
Because EURJPY is neutral, not trending, meaning that this contract was purchased base solely on structure and position, and because this pair has be zigzagging up and down for hours and hours, I don't trust it to remain in-the-money for 13 more hours and am therefore going to pocket the little bit of profit I have right here and now rather than go for the full payout of $49.
USDJPY suddenly decided to bust a move back up to the 16-hour temporal resistance level, not too far from the 48-hour temporal resistance level up at 108.23. Given that this is also where the upper band of the 8-hour price range envelope is presently located, and seeing as how the 24-hour baseline is still bearish, I regarded this as an opportunity to purchase a put contract with a 108.20 strke price, even though this meant that the corresponding win-to-reward ratio would be only 1:2, as opposed to the 1:1 minimum I supposedly set for myself.
Sunday / May 2, 2021 / 4:10 PM PST From April 16, 2021... This is the third test strategy based on the same principles, which I'm calling the "dot-tab" tactic (for "do trade tops and bottoms"). Maybe this one will work 100% of the time...
Seeing as how price is located near the top of the 8-hour price range, and being satisfied with a $31.75 return on this trade, I'm going to lock in my gains right here and now rather than wait another eight-and-a-half hours to find out if the trade is going to offer me the full payout at expiry.
Hmm...I seem to have started something new on May 2nd and then forgot about it two days later. Anyway, the DOTTAB style of trading NPP is probably now in the final stages of refinement, and as I was looking at EURUSD for this purpose, it occurred to me that I should test something here. The idea came to me belatedly, so the timing was awful. It was possible to execute this trade when it would have been MUCH closer to a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio (like 90 minutes ago). Nonetheless, I still want to see if this contract will be in-the-money 14 hours from now.