Bet the Farm Strategy

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by Calmpassions, Apr 7, 2006.

  1. ES trading Strategy

    30 minute time frame

    Look for bars that have finished at it's high or low point.

    If closes at the low, enter a market order to sell with a one point stop and a three point profit target.

    If closes at the high, enter a market order to buy with a one point stop and a three point profit target.

    Once the market moves in the direction of the trade, change stop loss to break even.

    With this strategy, you are riding the wave of the trend. Somedays there will be no signal to trade, keeping you out of choppy markets.

    When you see the signal to enter the market, you will have a lot of confidence in the direction and momentum of the market so time to BET THE FARM. If your nervous about waiting for the full three points, then experiment with less but you'll be surprised how often you can take three points out of the market.

    This is a very high probability time to enter the market. It is a great way to trade with the trend. You know the old adage, " the trend is your friend."

    Oh, btw, I need to emphasize one very important part of the strategy. When I say that the bar must finish at either the top or bottom, I mean AT THE VERY TOP OR BOTTOM. If it finishes just one tick off the top or bottom, better to pass on the trade. It also helps if the signal bar is a high volume bar but does not have to be.

    Happy trading!
  2. Cheese


    What is this horsesh*t?

    Look for something you discovered 4 and half seconds ago!

    The trend, if even you can fine the mother, is nobody's friend.

    Do your study and start a journey of understanding .. bars finishing at their top or bottom is like a fart in the wind without more than that.

    Get real.
  3. ===============
    Well the trend is surely your friend , but its not a prediction;
    not wise to ''bet farm'', you must be a real ,real young guy.:cool:

    Probably dont live on a farm huh, me neither:D
  4. Pabst


    Couple of problems I have with "closing" bars. For one, what's so special about 10:30 as opposed to 10:43. I'm paid in price and all I care about is price.

    Secondly I've noticed that after many years of obscene, in your face, close at the extreme of the day trendiness, suddenly the indices are changing. The market is becoming quite forgiving with retracements if not flat out reversals after the early to mid morning move. The ever changing profile of the market is systematic of it's organic nature.
  5. Seen at auctioned off
  6. cnms2


    I assume you're not kidding ...

    To quiet down the naysayers post a backtest log, preferable of the last week or month.
  7. cnms2


  8. 4/07 +3

    4/05 +3

    4/04 -1

    4/03 -1

    3/31 -1

    3/29 +3

    3/27 break even

    3/17 +3

    3/16 +3

    3/14 -1

    3/08 -1
  9. Here's what I found in looking at the last 4 weeks of 30 minute candles (regular hours only and assuming no trades were entered after 3:30):

    3/14 10:00 Stopped out -1
    3/14 12:30 Stopped out -1
    3/16 11:30 Stopped out -1
    3/17 12:30 Stopped out -1
    3/29 11:30 +3
    3/31 10:00 stopped out -1
    4/3 14:30 +3
    4/7 10:00 stopped out -1 (would have been good if stop was 1.25 or more)

    Besided trading infrequently, it certainly doesn't look like a strategy on which I'd want to bet the farm. Even if you adjusted the stop to -1.5, it would have only netted 1.5 points (three wins and 5 losses) over the past 4 weeks.

    Am I missing something here?
  10. Hey boys & girls:

    Just a quick comment as follows;

    I have already been down this road. About a mile down the way, after you have got some velocity up and you have just "bet the farm" so to speak, "the road" comes to an unexpected end.

    As your car goes careening off the road and down the 300 foot cliff, I hope you will remember what I am going to say. Its a long way down

    First, there is no strategy that one can "bet the farm" on, none.

    Second, I have already tested this one. It don't work. It worries me that someone would suggest that it does, because it tests like a pig with lipstick.

    The good news is that there is a way to fix it. Because I am a real son-of-a-bitch I will not tell you how. But I can assure you that it can be done and it doesnt take an act of congress to find the answer.

    What it does take, is that you get off your ass, and learn to backtest, AND learn to properly interpret backtest results.

    I hope you have had time to read and decide to do something before you come to that "danger cliff" sign at the end of this road.

    Best Regards,
    #10     Apr 8, 2006