I was watching a video where some guy whose name I believe is Kristian Harloff mentioned that he bet money on the Oscars, and he was on the phone checking the odds on his picks with some guy from an Antigua/Barbuda gambling site called Betonline. I was curious as to whether they might offer bets on financials, so I checked them out and it appears that they do. It also looks like they might prove to be an acceptable alternative to Nadex, which I have decided not to give any more of my business for a number of different reasons. First of all, it looks like their minimum deposit amount is $50, whereas I believe Nadex is up to $200. Second, it seems a wager at the current price offers a potential 75% return on investment as compared to only 50% at Nadex. Of course, a professional investor would insist on a minimum 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio, but with a daily success rate north of 80% to 90%, a reward-to-risk ratio of 7:10 doesn’t bother me at all. From what I can gather, the minimum stake is $2.00, which beats the heck out of Nadex’s $100, and it appears Betonline has flexible time increments of 1 min, 5 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hours, and 1 day, which I will probably no doubt prefer to Nadex's regimented and limited 5-min, 20-min, 1-hour, 2-hour, and multiples of 4-hour blocks. A lot of betting sites do not serve U.S. residents, but this one apparently does, and since a move of one pip can be worth $1.50 on a $2.00 wager, there is the potential for me to make a lot more money at Betonline than I am currently making with my 0.01 Lot trades at OANDA, so if I end up giving them my business, this is where I will keep track of my experiences there.
If I do actually end up using this service, I will mainly be looking for opportunities to enter positions (wager bets) when an exchange rate reverses itself after... separating itself from the green moving averages a distance that it is statistically reluctant to distance itself much farther, bouncing off one of the upper or lower bands of the dynamic support/resistance envelope, or pulling back to the "wrong" side of clearly trending green moving averages. I'm planning on using a "Time to Invest" that is long enough so that on those hopefully rare occasions when price turns against me, I will have ample opportunity to place one wager in the opposite direction to limit my loss to $0.50 as opposed to $2.00.
Whatever your gripes were with Nadex they are going to be X10 with any of these unregulated offshore outfits. Also presumably you're an American if you were with Nadex, which makes it against U.S. law for this site to deal with you. You won't get in trouble with the law (probably), but if they're willing to flaunt that law how much do you think they're going to pay attention to silly little things like returning your earnings or deposit to them when you request it? Also, don't forget to file your FBAR since you've now got money in an account outside the U.S., they definitely don't fuck around when it comes to enforcing that one!
I used to find it impossible to forecast what exchange rates would do beyond the immediate time frame, but I don't think that's true any longer. However, before I start making wagers based on what is little more than an impression at this time, I want to start tracking my performance in concrete terms to either confirm or disprove the existence of any level of competency along these lines (to help guide my choice of time frames if and when I do start using this service). So at this time, CADJPY and GBPUSD strike me as having reached or nearly reached key levels, structurally speaking, so I am interested in seeing if where these rates head during the upcoming week match my expectations or not.
Even if GBPUSD does ultimately fall some, I wouldn't be surprised to see it first test resistance, perhaps somewhere up around the 1.3286 level.
Notes to self… Use this setup (at least initially) when it comes to making actual wagers. Use the purple moving average, along with the brownish orange simple moving average envelope, to suggest the overall general—though lagging—direction of the exchange rate. (Evaluate whether you really want to keep the yellow-green moving average on the chart in that it might be too slow to bother with when evaluating the shorter-term (actionable) trend, yet too sensitive to price fluctuations to serve as an accurate representation of where rates might ultimately be headed.) Use the blue moving average to confirm the forecast suggested by the red moving average, which is the final arbiter of the short-term intraday (actionable) trend’s sentiment/bias. The orange and white Battenburg moving average signals possible reversals in the actionable trend, with the remaining two (gray and white) lines following short-term fluctuations in price, and helping to define the actionable sentiment/bias via their positional relationship with respect to the longer-term trend lines. In the final analysis (for the time being at least) plan to assign the greatest amount of weight to the orange and white Battenburg moving average.
At 84.28 I have a buy signal on CAPJPY, so I'll want to see if the pair is above this level six hours from now and twenty-four hours from now.
GBPUSD sell signal at 5:38 p.m. PST. CAPJPY has essentially gone nowhere in the last two to three hours.
SUNDAY, March 3, 2019 6:40 p.m. PST GBPUSD The white moving averages and the blue & white Battenburg trend line look like they are trying to form a bullish hook to the north. CADJPY The orange & white Battenburg signal line is now bearish, but the white moving averages have yet to hook north, so watch to see if perhaps the white moving averages will provide a better entry signal than the orange Battenburg.