Best way to gamble?

Discussion in 'Options' started by luh3417, Oct 3, 2005.

Do you use options to gamble?

  1. I never trade options.

    0 vote(s)
  2. I use options to mitigate risk, not create it.

    1 vote(s)
  3. I sometimes create additional risk using options.

    1 vote(s)
  4. I straight out gamble using options.

    6 vote(s)
  1. luh3417


    I have a belief that a certain company is going to release a revolutionary product within the next few months, and I further believe that this will be well received and drive up the price of their stock. If I want to put my money where my mouth is and speculate, actually gamble, on this, what is the best way to do this? Just simply buy an OTM call say 6 months out? Is the arbitrage so efficient that it doesn't matter what strike price? Similarly, should I just go out to April or should I buy an option 3 months out then get a subsequent contract if needed? The above seems to match my mindset: they'll either release it by April or I lose my entire bet.

    Any other downside gotchas, e.g. watch out for option being exercised automagically by the OCC on Saturday and getting burned by a gap down on Monday morning. (Must click the button at IB that prevents this). See...

    Any other advice for me, other dangers or opportunities? I've been learning about all the greeks etc. but in a perverse way it seems like everyone is doing something analagous. We have an expectation about how an underlying may behave, and we stack up synthetic options to create a return curve to meet that (subject also to our investment goals). Perhaps others have more complex reasons for their expectations, and more complex, continously evolving and adapting synthetics to reflect that. I suppose I should allow that my expectations for this stock/product will change.