Ideally I like to buy credit default swaps, but seeing as how I don't have the capital to do that, What's the best way to get short on it's overinflated real estate bubble?
you could short the major banks like TD bank or bank of nova scotia. here's an article re an HF manager doing this http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...an-whos-selling-canada-short/article11585150/ here's one from the ira sohn conference http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/05/steve-eismans-sohn-conference.html#ixzz2T32yPlhu
Sell banks, sell retail discretionary stocks, overweight the index remainder, think about selling some index futures here and there as punts.
For us retail mom and pop investors and traders, the best strategy is keep our powder dry, be patient and wait until there is blood in the Canadian streets, then buy. Many in the US (including major HF) did that after 2010 and profited handsomely.
Your timing better be on point if you are gonna short Canadian Banks. Otherwise you will be paying out the close to 5% dividends out to who ever your borrowed the stock from. I used to work as a mortgage adviser until late 2016 and saw the personal financial picture of thousands of individual from all over Canada. It is not a pretty sight. The amount of debt, whether customer, or secured debt was staggering. The only reason a lot of my clients were staying afloat was due to constant refinances every 2 -3 years. I agree with the video above that a deleveraging is going to come sooner or later.
It's hard to short real estate indirectly. Shorting Canadian banks isn't the best idea, because not all of their profits come from mortgages.
The fact that you were some mortgage adviser with a shitty client base isn't indicative of much at all other then maybe it wasn't the career for you. Foreclosure rates in the US are far higher then in Canada. I've seen Americans ( some hedge funds and some posters here ) spouting off these theories since 2010. I'm not sure what the expiry date is on these ideas but there are numerous traders on here who have been trying to short US indexes since spring 2009. It's a free world people can flail away on useless or marginal pursuits all they want.
I worked for an A lender and have delt with thousands of clients all over Canada over a 6 year period. I am just giving my observation. Most house holds were heavily weighed in Real estate with minimal to no other financial assets. Sure occasionally id see a deal where a person had little debt and some assets outside of the house but this was very very rare. The job made me extremely debt averse.