I concur with the posts so far in this thread. They are all informed comments. I was drawn to the irresistible attraction of the DJIA (YM) from the outset. However for leading a team I include all liquid index futures for playing, ES being the most liquid.
Still playing, you still have to know what you trade, and I'm sure there is at least ten components in the ES that you have no idea what they do. No offense, as I'm sure a lot of the traders reading this would agree, so that's not just a comment about you.
I'd suggest five years of backtesting before anything. A lot of people would be surprised how much you'll learn about trading just by backtesting for a few years. Then, you'll start to think about how to implement your strategy, and that'll be the other part of your training.
Whatever value can be drawn from backtesting, it is insufficient to establish the metrics of a market; this is because OHLC is a skeletal and insufficient input. However for some, backtesting is their predetermined approach to markets and certainly for backtesting amateurs, its limitations can misguide and even impede understanding and optimal/maximum use of the profits markets offer.
Very insightful post...so...you would be saying NQ is up tomorrow?...do you follow AAPL. RIMM, GOOG intraday divergences for the NQ to snap back to that level?...how many NQ contracts do you trade at a time?how long per trade?how many NQ trades per day?