Exactly!!!! The same with vol. High vol begats high vol, and low-low. A market at rest remains at rest, and when that equilibrium is disturbed price remains disturbed and it takes time for that equilibrium to settle down. Like picking up a super ball and bouncing it as hard as you could on the floor. You've disturbed its equilibrium and it doesn't just land on the floor and stop after its first bounce. Now, speaking directionally, if I stick my hand out and block it as it attempts to bounce again, that would be analogous to a 'new opposing force' - the big seller that just came into the market...
Unless you doing HFT from home or you working as a Quant, doesn't really matter what timeframe or symbol it is, charting is charting. Not many retail are doing micro second trades from home. Best Strategies start off with risk management first, I believe it is 99% of any Strategy. Newer traders want to know how to get in, then after or even before, they are lost. Define Trend. Learn a few S/R patterns to negate the signal. Don't take more than 3 trend trades, first one if successful has greatest possibility of sustained move on runners and last trade might be best only go for the scalp. Think in terms of Elliott of 3 trends waves and 2 counter, doesn't always work this way, but gives you an idea when to either discontinue more trades, or give less time for trade to advance if near end of a swing of 5 waves. Include time into a trade, at how many bars do most trades end up becoming losing trades. And finally enter of retracement. Then comes much back testing. Check MAE and MFE.
In my opinion this post is more valuable than any trading related book. This is exact way I desined my own strategies. Special thanks to Handle and his contributions. The only one item I do not use is time based stop but it can be special feature of Euro Bund, my market. I strongly encourage OP to read analyze and research what Handle described here.
To say that TA is not reliable is a sweeping statement and needs challenging. To be correct you would need to have tested all forms of TA, all of its indicators, patterns and features, in all time-frames. I have to assume this hasn't been done, it would be a life-time's work. But core TA does work. Define an acceptable uptrend on the daily chart for e.g. the S&P. Buy the index's derivative when it resumes rising after weakness. Exit when it starts to weaken again or has risen unusually strongly. Buy in again when strength resumes. Tell me how that cannot work.
because most businesses do have a cycle.....and many products/companies have become obsolete because of technology or excessive competition or some other reasons which cannot point out now
Does your business allow u to scale in all your investible cash? If it doesnt, market is an option for u. If it does, back to Biz is more competitive advantage for u.
I use Ninja. The work was already referred to...many hours of watching price development and testing ideas based on your observations. As I stated, my entries are based on trend pullbacks. The trend is identified by MA slope and price action (lower lows etc) backed my momentum dynamics across time frames. For a short I need a close or at least half the signal bar above the descending 9ema, the entry is on the takeout of the low of the high bar and vice versa for a long. There are a combination of filters and qualifiers which I see no reason to list here as it's largely a waste of time to do so. You seem to have a bad attitude about TA generally and would highly suggest you look elsewhere for a profession. Maybe like many on ET you enjoy jerking around on a mindless thread. I don't mind helping people but like Wheezoo pointed out, the likelihood of success is small for most regardless of the efforts of a teacher.
I find your post interesting, but given that it’s compiled nine pages of responses in one day, I’m not going to take the time to read them all. I’ve read enough to get the gist of what’s being said. Though I am under the impression that he might disagree with a number of my ideas, I’d have to say that I very much support most of the statements being made by speedo. Given that you registered with ET yesterday, I don’t know that it is worth saying much more, since there are a number of individuals who pop in to raise the kind of topic you raised here, and then disappear. Nonetheless, you yourself described at least two instances I saw which serve as good examples as to why you cannot fully trust fundamental analysis. My decisions are primarily based on technical analysis because I’m not inclined to argue with the math. Pretty much all I care about is trend direction (or lack thereof) and price range. For example, take a look at the GBPJPY daily chart below, which I chose due to how crazy things have been over the last couple of days given the vote in the UK. It’s easy enough to see when price has been trending up, down, or sideways. If you stay in your trades as long as an asset continues to trend and set your stops to get you out when it reverses, how are you NOT going to make a profit over the long haul? This is even more true if you use lower time frame charts to enter positions on pullbacks within the typical price range and pocket your gains when price begins to stall (or reverse) following surges. But as for changing your mind on the reliability of technical analysis, that’s completely out of my purview. Whether or not this takes place, if ever, is 100% under your control.
Not disagreeing with you. Just that for me personally, if I started a business with $1,000 and made $400 to $600 in a year, I won't be looking for another business to invest, instead I would put every penny of my $400 to $600 back into the business and grow it.
Currency pairs (macro economics, politics) Monthly Options based on company fundamentals (market share, earnings) the market is saturated with lies and misdirection, so if you have something better to do?