By all means, throw your hat in the ring with a known forum troll who won't present facts, but instead just show up to make snarky remarks that have no substance. Oh, and who has half of this forum on ignore for...well, thinking he is a troll. I'll go read your article now and we can get back to the discussion. Or we can just insult each other. Your choice.
Great, let's look at the article, published back in January. Ok, opening statement in which the author claims the future looks like it will be a good one, with economic activity looking like it will pick up. We'll get to the data when he gets to the chart, but I do note two important aspects here. First, he's talking about fiscal policy and the resulting austerity impacting macro economics, not monetary policy. It's important to remember, we're talking the Fed and QE, and it's impact to the economy, and what we think is getting better in order for the Fed to pull back QE (because, as you stated, you don't believe QE3 is good, but all the other QEs were). The second interesting comment is that he says "ex-austerity, we'd probably be looking at a decent year." So we're still not at the level of decent, ok. Gotcha. Hopium, and all that. I'm tracking now. Oook. So housing starts are the fourth lowest since 1959, but again, we're looking for them to pick up. We're hoping, k? After all, here's how NAHB future sales expectations have worked out so well in the past... So government job layoffs appear to be over based on California, Nevada, and the fact that government jobs declined by only 26,000 jobs in all of 2012, before the sequester was put into effect. I see. Never mind about that pesky private payroll information, the unemployment rate (the U-6, of course, not the convenient U3) and the Labor force participation rate. Also ignore that all jobs being put out there are now part time instead of full time, and that Obamacare will be driving this to be the norm in the future as people attempt to get under the hours-per-week mandate to drive health insurance. I can offer links on any of this if you question it's validity. Just say the word. Let's hope (there's that word again) it continues to decline, though a lot of that will have to do with debt ceiling negotiations this coming September. The US still has no budget (the senate hasn't passed one in years) and the belief that deficit to GDP will lower is partly predicated on lofty GDP estimates, and on a sequester which has cut spending (albeit by a little amount) and is harming GDP on it's own merit (which I will not argue). WTF. Calculated Risk then goes into how there has been a slight decrease in mortgage debt and it would appear consumers are firming up their balance sheets. Riiight. Student loans. 10 year car loans. FHA no money down houses. ARMs on the rise. People living for free as banks refuse to foreclose. Yeah, we're doing lovely. The last paragraph talks about the longer term, admitting there are serious problems that need to address, but in the short term, it "looks" (hopes/seems/probably/maybe/should be) getting better. But no real data to support any of that. And my one chart regarding QE and the economy getting better: Your serve.
That's a biggie, Tsing. The data I've seen is showing the overwhelming majority of job gains in 2012 were part time. The other thing I find particularly scary for the economy is the cost of the Obama regulations that have been created and those that are still coming down the pike.
Tsing, why did you go and bring facts into this debate? I was really hoping to go on Martin's word. But good work. I suspect Martin is planning his next vacation now. May not see him for a while. I'm sure his sidekick Ricter will offer some cute comeback.
Martin is a smart character. I think he's just misled, and certainly not tuned into the US economy. But then he's not living here so it's not that important, perhaps. Ricter, on the other hand....well, "sidekick" is a good, G-rated description. No doubt the aforementioned "cute comeback" is being crafted and will be here momentarily.
I really don't understand you sometimes, TT, honestly... Firstly, why on Earth are you so sensitive to a conversation I have with someone else? Did I say anything specific to insult you in my humorous exchange with Ricter? I don't think so. Secondly, what do you mean "throw my hat in the ring"? Ricter's comment was a joke, to which I responded in kind. I wasn't like making any profound statements or anything. Thirdly, you'll have to forgive me. In my interactions with Ricter, I have never found his behavior trollish or any more unacceptable than anyone else's. Therefore, frankly, I couldn't give a rat's ass what other people on this forum think. The choice of whether to interact with someone is mine and I will exercise it freely. If it doesn't suit you and you somehow find it insulting, tough luck. Finally, by all means, let's get back to our discussion, if you're willing. If not and you find my behavior insulting, let's by all means stop. Your choice.
And, his comment that goes with the chart As a reminder: jobs have quantity and quality components. The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals). But how about the quality? In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality" leading to today's market euphoria (if only for now). http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000
Crybaby, you keep sputtering this and it's not true. If I have "half of this forum" on ignore then some of your comrades have 180% of this forum on ignore. Does not compute.
Ricter is not joking. Ricter is being his usual trolling self. If you don't see that, then you've not spent enough time down here in the P+R section - which actually might be a good thing in all honesty.