Along with Taleb's book you should read Niederhoffer's latest: Practical Speculation. It will open your eyes.
Two excellent books for understanding odds: Amirillo Slim in a world of fat people. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/00...103-1874905-2950213?s=books&v=glance&n=283155 Bringing down the house (The story of the MIT bj team) http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/07...103-1874905-2950213?s=books&v=glance&n=283155
I'm a long time trader, and I still don't believe "calculating odds" has anything at all to do with trading.
it all depends on what kind of trader you are, if you are trading vol like i described, you better know about the odds.
When I was a teenager I was sure that the experts were wrong and that I could find a way to beat the crap tables. I spent about a year trying to manipulate the numbers to come up with some kind of edge. By the time I realized that they were right I had developed a healthy respect for the law of averages that has stood me well all these years. Doing these kinds of calculations with a pair of dice is a great exercise.