your premise is a fatal error. you should not be predicting. the market should be telling you what to do.
With the recent intro of weekly options on highly liquid stocks, vertical debit spreads are most likely the best option strategy for what you're trying to accomplish since they also expire in 5 trading days. The long side of the vertical should be slightly in the money, while the short side slightly out of the money. If you pay no more than 1/2 the maximum value of the spread (that's when the price of the underlying is at or beyond the short side of the spread), and the underlying finishes there at expiration, you'll end up with a 100% return while having a 1:1 R/R profile on your position. It's a beautiful position when structured properly that allows the trader to sleep better at night.
I have studied the exact problem you are dealing with, and I have devised solutions to the problem. There is one piece of information you did not provide and which determines which solution is "best". The missing information: from your experience what is the percentage of trades that reach a 2 dollars profit, and what is the percentage of trades that reach a 2 dollars loss? If you do not have a precise answer, an estimate based on your judgment of those two numbers would be fine.
Hi, for bear put spread,when used to make a directional bet, what R/R ratio can be considered as ideal? Seems 1:1 ratio is common for this strategy?
Consider yourself very lucky if you get a 1:1 ratio and the long side of the spread (whether it's bear put or a bull call spread) is nicely in the money. Any thing higher and you're talking astronomical returns. For that kind of return, you are surely going to be required to leg into the spread.
I found that usually just out of the money options are more profitable, sometimes the premium doesn't yet reflect the likelihood of a strong move into the money. You can get many more contracts this way, if you are right you rake it in once the options go in the money. You need a high probability of being right and be willing to lose your investment. The rewards can be massive.