GARDEN VARIETY GAP FADE... also a contender for worst trade of the day, in that I COULD have held some for extension or looked for re-entry, but instead just took what I could get and bugged out. Since the exit wasn't a true violation of my trading rules, but merely a suboptimal use of discretion, I'll simply note that I could have been more aggressive, at least with the last few lots.
Didn't have any losing trades today - but I took only three set-ups. I could include some missed opportunities as "bad trades," but, then again, feeling cautious due to the FOMC announcement and other crosscurrents, I also passed up some marginal set-ups that might very well have turned into disasters (after an early success shorting PALMD, for instance, I was itching to get short on it again all day - but it kept on making new highs). Instead, of indulging in some "ones that got away" pity party, I'll include this SYMC trade as my worst of the day - I fumbled the exits, using the wrong order types on the direct move, then went into penny-pinching mode, closing the rest of the position at slightly better than breakeven when I could easily have gotten at least a re-test out of it. On the prior theme: My experience has been that, if I'm not watching at least a few marginal looking set-ups run away from me, then I'm being TOO aggressive, and, rather than catch some super-spike out of luck, I am more likely either to take a bad hit (or hits) or to get stuck in some "all-day sucker" of a trade that goes nowhere.
Another "volatile breakdown" very similar to that terrible CELG trade from the other day. I really am going to have to collect these again, and study them more deeply - as I know that I lose more money and at a faster rate than I ever make money chasing set-ups like these. If I'd gone the other way on them consistently... I'd have to charge for this journal - or run a chat room and earn your spite and calumny... I've actually had moderate success fading these in the past, and the good thing about looking for them for fades is that, even if you don't act, you're a lot less likely to get suckered into them. Maybe they need a cuter mnemonic... Could call them "hand grenades, " as in "fallling on a hand grenade for the boys." May need some other ideas for trade triggers/cues, and some way to research them a bit more systematically. Anyway, here's the sad reality, slipped-up exit and all. Had even thought about doubling down instead of closing out - would have worked, if I had the stomach for it... And if I didn't know that turning that into a regular tactic could be suicidal... talk about jumping on grenades...
Had a lousy day - getting caught up and crossed up in that "megaphone range" that faked both a breakdown and a breakout - and then threw that horrible USAI trade on top of things, but made some back and made myself feel a little better with this one. The entries, both the breakdown and the little reversal, were both handled partly as "scalps," with some of the tape-reading tactics that apply to gap fades and generally to stocks trading "in extremis." The main danger with trades like these may be getting the idea that I could do them all day. Would need a different platform probably, and a number of other adjustments in my approach. I did decide to experiment with that idea one day, and added some size AND doubling down tactics: The result was my worst day of the year (the famous "late-September disaster" or whatever I called it earlier).
Look familiar? Basically another, earlier in the session version of the CELG and USAI trades which, together with this one, ensured a lousy overall performance for me this week. I, um, kinda knew the moment I saw it that I was engaging in wishful thinking: Ragged, volatile consolidation, marginal (just a tick or two) penetration of support, quick reversal. The characteristic this one lacked was any semblance of trading with an overall market trend. I've had some thoughts on that subject, but, in this case, I was too singleminded about seeing market trend issues differently: CYMI looked "relatively weak" to me as I entered this trade - but I was shorting into a buzzsaw. I was also feeling particularly vengeful, anxious to "set things right," in that I was just loading up my normal 5-minute charts after coming off a mediocre gap fade (NVDA) that, with a proper exit, could have been much better than it turned out. By the time this trades was closed, I was significantly down for the day, just a few minutes after having thought I was going to have a great start...
If I could just stay out of trades like today's CYMI, I'd be doing pretty well. If I learned how and when to take the other side of them, I might be doing terrifically well. In the meantime, trades like this one keep me from blowing up, and point to better possibilities for the future. I'd been scoping out PALMD all week, and my strong sense that it was overbought and coming back made it easier for me to hold through some initial adverse movement and, possibly more important, not to rush to take profits - and even with the larger market showing signs here and there of a possible rally.
Three sessions in a row now, virtually all of the trending "action" has taken place within the first hour or two of the day, reacting off the open. Volume and volatility have largely evaporated thereafter, making it difficult for me, at least, to find much to do beyond spinning wheels and playing for 10ths. Otherwise, with no interesting gap plays having turned up on my scans before the open, today added up to pretty much a wasted day. A couple bad trades made it a red one, too. Ik. I suppose there are certain styles of trading perfect for this kind of environment.
pseudo-liquidity scalp on AMAT - missed meager profit opportunity on all but a small piece... ate the rest of it for a larger than planned loss... Got to get a little quicker on closing these down on any adverse movement... Not quite ready to give up on the idea completely, as I've had a pretty good batting average historically on scalps.
now don't get TOO excited by this trade for all of .13 or so - though that does qualify as, like, .03 of extension! Actually, had hoped for a more volatile move to 18.4 or so, but, considering how things were going, I'm glad I hurried out with what I got. I'm abbreviating this trade "cr" for "crown," even though it's a long trade from an inverted, not very crown-like base. May have to change the name to something more evocative - a "hotfoot" (HF?), an "ankle biter," hm.... something'll come to me I suppose.
There are two stocks that I am sure I would "never speculate" on: 1) IBM 2) AMAT Why? They are both "controlled" buy the options players in Chicago. They always know more than you do, so unless you have an arbitrage opportunity of some kind, where is your edge? nitro