Making market "calls" is not part of my practice - I believe it's better for a daytrader not to have a strong market opinion - but one fact stands out from my weekend selection of trading candidates very obviously: Out of the approximately 350 Nasdaq stocks I looked at, around one third were at or near major highs, with many clearly in "breakout" mode or appearing on the verge of it. Only a couple handfuls appeared to be in or approaching "breakdown" mode. I do not presume that the stocks in the much larger former group are all or mostly "overbought," and are therefore destined to come back hard on the first tests of support. Nor do I presume that further up-moves should be bought as momentum plays. I do suspect, however, that, at least at the beginning of the week, most of the set-ups I trade will likely revolve around the sustainability of recent gains vs. the desire of market participants to cash in on them. With only one full trading week before Thanksgiving, and a sense of international "contingency" seemingly on the rise, it's not hard for me to envision an initial impetus toward distribution giving way to substantial pullbacks. As ever, unexpected and extreme divergences from this "reasonable" scenario may be a lot more interesting than any satisfaction in correct prognostication.
Haven't been keeping this journal for the last month or so, but I'm still alive and trading and even keeping trade gifs. The reasons I stopped posting them here are 1) Though some initial discussion greeted the creation of this journal, feedback dropped down to zero - not even an "attaboy" here or an expression of sympathy there, much less serious questions or suggestions or ideas. 2) I recently started trading the e-minis as well as stocks, and have been focused on getting my approach in order. I suppose that if this journal had been more rewarding or lively, I would have begun presenting the trades and their rationales from the outset, and also have described initial experiences with Interactive Brokers, the Traders Workstation, and add-ons. I still have not decided to kill this thread, but I haven't decided to resume it either. I wonder if my decision to display and, where it seemed appropriate, to analyze my best and worst trades, without getting into "bottom line" issues very specifically, has robbed the journal of drama or sporting interest. Traders who describe impressive results attract a following and also a group of critics and skeptics, and traders who describe mediocre or worse results attract attention of a different kind. I believe I've arrived at a good method, one that partly relies on stepping back just a bit, taking only the very best, belt-and-suspenders set-ups from either equities or futures: My worst days are still the days with the most trades and the most intense or desperate trading. Since I started with the e-minis, I have made far fewer equities trades, but at a much higher winning percentage and average win vs. average loss, and to higher profitability overall. With the e-minis I had what might have been beginner's luck, or might have been a reflection of the same approach: At first, I was careful to the point of reluctance, partly because I was still learning the software. It was only when I got intense about it, that the givebacks started. In short, trading with a lighter touch seems to work better for me - at this point, doing so seems to mean missing some good set-ups, but it also means avoiding bad ones, and taking a weak set-up hits you twice: In the bad results of the trade itself, as well as in the opportunities lost. If I can use this journal as a way to maintain a good balance between self-doubt and overconfidence, and if it manages to stimulate even a little discussion, then I may start keeping it up again. If not, then, to the few of you who have followed along or made contributions - thanks, good luck, seasons greetings, and all the rest...