interesting point can build our your own soon http://today.reuters.com/stocks/Quo...=CN&symbol=CME&storyID=98353+20-Jun-2006+RTRS
Quote from scriabinop23: "Probably because people have been eating these things (rice, wheat, soybeans, and coffee) all along, and demand has not changed considerably with respect to production. But the runup in metals and energy is pretty clearly a byproduct of modernization and rapid development of emerging markets. Just stating the obvious." Right, this is exactly what I'm saying. There hasn't been an increase in demand for softs and grains similar to what we've seen in precious metals. However, fundamental research is in consensus about an increase in FUTURE demand. At some point, all of this future demand will be priced in and we'll see higher resistence levels. If the demand doesn't materialize, no shift in floor (minimum) prices, but if it does, a shift. If you see this shift beginning to occur, you can catch the move. "So if you want a long macro view on those commodities, I'd probably look to long term climate change and isolated strange events as a source of inspiration, as well as changing world tastes. Next mad cow event would be an excellent opportunity to go long on beef." I agree. I think climate change and increased weather "volatility" and unpredictability are factors that underpin the fundaemtnal view and support a long-bias.
I agree here as well. I am overall bearish on the equity and bond markets and am currently in the procees of figuring out what positions I can put in place to maximize profits if we do experience a hard landing. Looking at long OTM puts on russel, spx, qqq, 2 and 10 yrs, etc. Also looking at long OTM calls on 100oz gold. I'm just bullish on the specific commodity markets I mentioned -but I do agree that any fat-tail event will affect depress most markets, even those with strong fundamentals or bullish technicals. side question here. looking for a good broker. I'm only looking to swing trade with avg holding time btwn 5 and 15 days. IB and TS seem to be great for intraday traders, while Ameitrade and Scottrade are great for research equity investors, but who can give me access to all of the diff markets without charging me for DIRECT ACCESS like IB? I think I am willing to settle for avg execution on a swing trade rather than pay hundreds in direct access fees. Is there a good broker that offers a happy medium for someone who plans to make less than 10 trades a month? sorry for off-topic
Thanks =). I think traders are inherently "intellectually competitive" and assume others know less than they. Add to that the "ego" element - also more prevalent than normal amongst traders - and it makes sense why we have all of the misunderstandings and bickering on these boards. I intend to use the research as a guide to the direction of my trades and understand the importance of traditional trading tactics and management on an intraday basis. I will probably not put any positions on in these markets anytime soon, save for oil and gold. There's alot I still need to read about the dynamics of each particular softs and grains market, but as far as debt, equity, gold and oil. I am bearish, bearish, bullish, bullish respectively. I think I will stick to long OTM options on futures for these and continue to track the softs/grains. Basically, I'd like to make a shitload of money in the event of a 4 to 6 sigma event, an event that would most likely be brought about by a hard landing from the current imbalanaces, or an unexpected disaster/conflict. I want to position myself so that when/if this occurs, I will get rich. If it doesn't happen, I'll be somewhat hedged and will be managing my downside to minimize loss (spreads, etc).
Yeah 25k is light for daytrading on 4 times leverage, but luckily thats not what i'm talking about here. I am about to begin daytrading equities, but that's my "job" and entirely separate from my personal futures investments. Given the 25k is pure risk capital, and given current speculator margin requirements, I should be able to get enough exposure to make the trade worthwhile, although it does present a problem, which is why I am focusing on options on futures. All of this discussion is good. I got ahead of myself as far as the diff agricultural markets. I don't have enough of a grasp on their individual dynamics to actually risk $ on rice and wheat, etc. But I stand by the bullish fundamentals and will hopefully do something there over the next 6 months to a year. I suppose I will concentrate the 25k on debt equity gold oil, where I am actually BETTING on a 4 to 6 sigma event brought on by the unravelling of these imbalances. These fat tail events are already occurring in foreign markets (iceland, hungary, turkey, etc) and it's only a matter of time before the chain reaction affects a more developed market and its plunge forces global investors to tighten risk controls and pull more money out of global markets.
BNT, good luck to you, and don't turn your back on you positions...the markets can and do grow claws a few of my trader buds got mauled on 9/11 because they couldn't get out of stuff....Osama is still out there wanting to play with matches.........
Go long with those options then. You know, by the deltas, that the probability of this crash that you'll capitalize on is pretty low. Don't hold your breath and spend too much on these options. There's a reason OTM options can be so cheap. And if you do, and there is a crash , I'll just be a mildly envious trader for it.