<i>"Austin - yes I know what you mean and I can assure you Roger will be trading the system live himself too. There are workable ways to provide realtime signals for a limited group of clients and also trade for oneself with the same system in different formats/dimensions."</i> Not to keep beating a dead horse until nothing's left but hide & bones... #1: Why a need for split signals amongst different groups of people? Why a need for different formats / dimensions? Who decides which client gets what? #2: With current results just the way they are being so incredible, why not shake down the ER model with a handful of contracts? I have no doubt Roger has a few dollars on hand to trade 20 ER contracts at a clip right now. $20k would be plenty from what the system has done this week. What possible reason(s) would there be not to shake it down with real money right now? Bugs and all, if the data is viable, 40+ points in a single session x20 contracts filled per turn should be the result. * I can tell you from experience as both a systems writer and long-time ER trader what would happen. Those demo fills for +1pt, +.5pt and -1pt would never play out in reality. Looks perfect in demo mode... now go ahead and try to fill 10 or 20 contracts with cash. You will get partial fills and slippage all over the place. Speaking for the ER specifically, let's say the system offered in public is based on x-settings of indicators inside an 89-tick chart. A tight little scalpy approach like that will be shredded first day in live fire. Why? Exuberant system buyers will try to pile on 100+ ER contracts cumulative, expecting fills to the tick on a +1/-1 or tighter basis. Why wouldn't they? The ER cannot support that type of action... not even close. The system itself may very well be a golden goose, for the writer trading one contract max. Trust me on this, there are many days where volume is so thin on the ER at the moment of that 22nd trade signal, you cannot fill even two contracts on a limit order. If using market orders instead, you will slip several ticks on many trades over time. Just because its visible in the queue does not mean there aren't more traders waiting than size is offered. On 10/24 if I took every given trade signal per the approach I use and let each one breathe for at least +4pts (or more) ER, results would have been +30 to +40pts easily. Those are the cake sessions for trading. Living thru the low volume, tight range, choppy periods will not permit one hundred of the same system users produce similar results in a black-box scalping system. ** I could go on for hours about the realities of trading systems, ER, etc but will spare everyone that effort. The gist of things remain true: Demo results never equal real-money results. Ever. There is a limit to contract size for systems, any market Myriad problems trying to tweak systems per saturation Good systems are guarded like golden geese, for good reasons I'm still interested in the ES version of this system with a few month's of real money track record to measure. With no discretion involved, an automated system stands or falls on real trade merit. We have nothing to get excited about until those results are compiled. Best of luck, and please keep us posted when the live accounts are underway.
Hi Austinp, I am a bit surprised about how thin Russell is. I trade DAX which resambles Russel a lot (volume, range), and have 1-2 tick slipage not too often if trading around 3-5 contracts (I only trade during active no news time). I looked at russel volume and dom few times and it looked like it can handle around 5 cars with no issue. Is this assumption wrong, just curious? I am taking about active hours with no trading around news releases. Thanks, redduke
<i>"I am a bit surprised about how thin Russell is. I trade DAX which resambles Russel a lot (volume, range), and have 1-2 tick slipage not too often if trading around 3-5 contracts (I only trade during active no news time)."</i> Here's the current ER dome, as of a few minutes ago. 21 x 32 at the bid-ask, two levels deep ES was 600+ x 900+ at the same time. Some days you can fill five or ten contracts on a limit all day, no problem. Other days, five on a limit fills one or two contracts before tape blows away. Happens often enough so you can never be sure that 100 consecutive trades will have nil slippage on markets or partial fills on limits. Where would 100 or 200 ER contracts fill at the same signals from an 89-tick (or any) chart? That's why blackbox systems are subject to overload = saturation. You don't have 100 people making entry decisions in the same area on a chart. They are making trade decisions on the exact-same spot. Hence the term "automated"
I was actually talking about market orders. Based on the dom, in the attachments, filling around 5 should be no problem.
AustinP, Roger knows everything you have already stated and obviously the ES version is the one to trade automated or the ZB..very liquid markets with real money of any significant size. The ER2 development makes sense though..if the signals can work on a market as noisy as the ER2 then that is a good sign. BOTTOM LINE...Roger is on to an amazing method/system imo that is showing some extremely positive developments! The ER2 is moving to ICE in a year anyhow so screw the ER2 as a market to trade with real money...no absolute need to use that market, just a great market right now for development work.
filling five ER2 at market will range from no slip to 2 - 3 ticks slipped from first to last. Around news events, especially 9:30am to 10am est can be hairy. I think it was early March sessions where a couple of entries slipped more than a full point on me, i.e. greater than ten ticks. You will see some wild +/- 4pt spider candles whipsawing at times during the first 30 min of cash session. Those are infrequent but they happen. If 100 traders of a system had a cumulative 200 contracts to place on the signal, many would either experience gross slippage on markets or no fills on limits. Not always, but often enough to negate mass use of a single system per ER. I do know a guy = group of guys trading blackbox ER making eight figures the past two years, up seven figures this year. They trade for handles / swings, not scalpy stuff. Their system legs into 80 and 100 contracts at a time when building positions, goes all out at th exit. Slippage on the exit can be nil to wider than ten ticks. Because they trade for several - many handles profit objective, slippage is moot. The blackbox in question is private money only, not available at any price to anyone else (not mine, either).
AustinP, Yes AMT4SWA's "accordion" system is trading on the ER2 in a fund too, so I am very familiar with current highly funded ER2 black box trading.
Absolutely, that is why I always wonder why people buy into such systems. If too many poople will fight for a trade at one time the results will be bad.
Everyone would have to be pretty brain dead to do just as you described..why would 100 traders knowingly all try to get in on the same time frame, all at the same time, all in such a thin market??? You are not understanding at all what the flexibility of the method and system is. I know what markets and time frames I will be using, which no one has a clue about...to each his own (some of the same ones that I currently use which no one in Roger's room are using...total flexibility).
I do understand it. For example, if you buy a system, it must have been tested with some preset parameters, such as certain chart type (1 min, 3 min and so on). By using your own, you will introduce a new variable(s). Letâs say that the systems stops are calculated using 1 min bars, but you decide to use 3 min bars. This means that your stops will have to be wider, and this changes everything about the system. Just because a system is good on one time frame, does not mean it will produce the same results on a different one unless you modify the parameters, by modifying them, you change the system. So in the case when the parameters are not modified and too many people start using it, they will have to fight for the best tick thus reducing system efficiency. redduke